Tips on how to resolve the issue of “strategic uncertainty”

MOSCOW, 21 april 2022, RUSSTRAT Institute.The phrase “collective West” can now not be excluded from…

MOSCOW, 21 april 2022, RUSSTRAT Institute.
The phrase “collective West” can now not be excluded from circulation. What is supposed by it? The US and its closest allies, together with the UK, Canada, Japan and a number of other different international locations of continental Europe. As we will see, these are completely different international locations in several areas of the world.

The US is engaged in making certain the unity of approaches of those completely different international locations to fixing world issues. That is already apparent, and subsequently america might be accused of violating world (strategic, if you’ll) stability.

For this function, all types of financial, navy and political alliances had been created: the EU (28 international locations), NATO (30 international locations), QUAD (Australia, India, USA, Japan), AUKUS (Australia, Nice Britain, USA, fairly “contemporary” – from September 15, 2021). Large financial and navy alternatives are being mixed. For instance, the NATO funds is about half of the world’s navy spending.

Why are such alliances created? So as to guarantee a dominant place in… sure, that’s proper – the economic system on account of financial and navy superiority. As a result of solely pirated neocolonial method. All different results, together with navy superiority, outcome from this financial setup.

Right here we will recall the well-known saying of the Prussian (and Russian, too) officer Karl von Clausewitz: “Struggle is nothing greater than the continuation of politics (diplomacy) by different means.” After which it’s price remembering the “patriarch” of the brand new at the moment (1867 – the primary version of Capital) concepts of the social construction of Karl Marx, who convincingly proved that politics is all the time secondary to economics.

Making use of the strategy of induction to reasoning, we get: economic system is major, warfare is its second by-product. Does it comply with from this that in case of degradation of financial circumstances, we should always count on a rise within the aggressiveness of the principle contributors within the course of? A cursory evaluation exhibits that that is precisely what is going on. Solely this course of just isn’t instantaneous. It lasts for many years and periodically escalates.

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Now there’s simply one other aggravation. Is it in a position to go from “chilly” to “sizzling”? Fairly so. Is there a strategy to cease the world from sliding right into a Third World Struggle, which might positively grow to be nuclear? Sure.

It’s essential to cease the main “aggressor” – america. It’s this nation that’s consistently elevating the bar of aggression, involving allies in varied methods in harmful tales.

Does the US have painful factors? Positive. Right here, for instance, is what they’re afraid of: strengthening of the alliance of Russia and China; nuclear warfare; the autumn of the greenback system; discount of the effectiveness of the military-industrial advanced. Additionally they have exorbitant state debt, together with large obligations to exterior collectors.

And to pay, for instance, solely on the curiosity on the debt, it’s obligatory in more and more giant quantities. Up to now it’s about 600 billion, however it appears like it is going to quickly be a trillion a 12 months. The place to get this amount of cash? Isn’t that the rationale for his or her rage?

Let’s depart apart the economic system for now. Let’s return to the navy element. What can be utilized to oppose america on this matter? Earlier than that, the reasoning befell on the stage of logic. Now let’s decide on the stage of arithmetic.

Let’s assume that it seems to place into apply the system: Russia + China – USA = WORLD. Though it is usually extra from logic than from arithmetic. Excluding solely US navy affect from the world agenda will instantly exclude American navy allies from it. Irrespective of how a lot they try for additional world domination on their very own, they won’t succeed. The mixed navy energy of Russia and China will make them extra attentive to the respectable pursuits of the brand new military-political bloc.

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Why would a brand new block come up? At the least from the consideration “why can they, however we cannot”. However that is virtually infantile reasoning, though not fully devoid of which means. Firstly, an alliance of such energy will instantly come up, which up to now nobody has even dreamed of. This alone ought to enlighten opponents.

Secondly, our international locations will instantly be capable to actively start fixing the hardened issues left to us by the identical US and its “comrades”. We’ll cope with neo-nazism in Ukraine in a calmer means. China may even calmly resolve the Taiwan downside. If earlier the Chinese language management agreed with (once more) the system “one nation, two techniques”, now it may possibly implement another choice – “China is one”.

What can push China in the direction of such an answer to the issue? It’s the identical instance of Russia, which is conducting a particular navy operation in Ukraine. In spite of everything, it was clear that ultimately Russia would undertake the elimination of Ukrainian neo-nazism.

And now it has grow to be clear that an actual warfare has been unleashed in opposition to us underneath the management of america. China is carefully monitoring the event of occasions. And it may possibly conclude – then they’ll grow to be a navy goal.

It isn’t essential to analyse the state of affairs for a very long time. It’s sufficient to concentrate to absolutely the symmetry of the relations of the “collective West” to Russia and China. There are the identical navy alliances round, together with with nuclear weapons (once more, American, and British, too), the identical assaults on the state system, the identical sanctions, intimidating navy workouts, threats, the identical intentions to make the lifetime of the inhabitants insufferable, the identical enchantment to separatism. Solely geographically, we’re underneath strain from the west, and China from the east.

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The West is already overtly declaring: Russia and China are enemies primary and two. On the similar time, the numbering is continually altering. They nonetheless can not resolve which of the international locations is extra threatening to them. The anticipated end result is that each international locations will probably be enemies primary, solely there will probably be a number of completely different accompanying rhetoric. There isn’t a different means out.

We may even make allowances for the People. In spite of everything, they’re laid low with the query of “strategic instability”. By this time period, they perceive the popularity of Taiwan as a part of China with the assist of “Taiwan’s capacity to defend itself”. Discover the duality of the method? That is the uncertainty. Why is it strategic? As a result of its decision in variety can result in warfare with China. That is precisely the strategic stage of the battle.

After that, america may even lose its need to contain its regional allies within the battle. As a result of lack of necessity. The difficulty might be resolved unilaterally by China and never essentially by navy means. Taiwan could also be supplied a very working scheme for the transition to continental laws. As an possibility.

A powerful military-political alliance between Russia and China will enable to “push” america to the margins of historical past and start a brand new, protected life on our continent.