Sitrep: Operation Z

Disclosure: This appears to be a Russian state-sponsored information report that was carried by Nighvision…

Disclosure: This appears to be a Russian state-sponsored information report that was carried by Nighvision for the Saker Weblog.

Russia continues grinding down the Ukrainian infrastructure, and that has been the theme of the previous few days. There was an enormous uptick in aerial assaults and missile strikes on varied infrastructural objects throughout. As of this writing an enormous quantity of missiles are recorded flying over Ukraine, and Tu-95MS bombers are mentioned to be within the air to contribute their KH-101’s.

Pavlograd railways had been hit:

Pavlograd railways had been hit

Many objects in Dnieperpetrovsk, Kremenchug, Druzhkovka, Poltava, Kharkov, Odessa and elsewhere had been all hit with very highly effective strikes, a number of missiles at every location. Not solely Kalibers from each submarines and ships within the Black Sea, however KH-101 Missiles from Tu-95MS’s as effectively.

“In line with Russian navy spokesman Main Basic Igor Konashenkov, within the afternoon, “high-precision long-range air-launched missiles” hit a logistics terminal situated on a navy airfield close to Odessa, the place “a big batch of international weapons acquired from the USA and European nations was saved.”

Ukraine is extraordinarily low on gasoline to the purpose that secret trains have been found delivering monumental emergency gasoline provides from Moldova.


One word on this: generally it’s laborious to amount navy success after we hear of those strikes as a result of they appear ‘summary’ and as soon as they begin including up, the numbers start to really feel an increasing number of abstracted and inconsequential. Every day the Russian MOD declares the destruction of a whole bunch of latest AFU objects. And shortly sufficient one’s thoughts naturally begins to query, ‘how a lot injury are these strikes actually doing if Ukraine continues to function?’ and many others.

And it’s an excellent query, we all know in navy reasoning you could’t win a struggle by airstrikes alone, boots on the bottom have to make giant strategic victories within the quaint method. There’s too many examples to listing (most of them American) of huge bombing campaigns over lengthy intervals of time not doing a lot to eradicate a resolute rebel drive.

With that mentioned, it’s typically straightforward to fall right into a lure of extremes the place one begins to assume that strikes usually are not doing something in any respect. The truth is they are doing an enormous quantity, however suffice it to say they’re not going to single-handedly make the AFU give up.

Additionally, it solely reinforces my place that the true Part 2 has probably not begun but, and this huge uptick in strikes is a continuation of a softening pre-phase. Different analysts like Colonel Cassad agree:

“Let me remind you that just a few days in the past Ukraine already introduced that the Russian Armed Forces had launched a common offensive, after which the following day the Pentagon introduced that the offensive had not but begun and the Basic Workers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine urgently started to vary sneakers.

To this point, Russia has solely introduced the beginning of the 2nd part of the operation in Ukraine, however has not introduced the beginning of a common offensive.

The Primary Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Protection of Ukraine warns of an  imminent large-scale offensive by the Russian Armed Forces

The GUR says that the Russians are ending the regrouping of troops and at the moment are specializing in figuring out probably the most weak locations of the Ukrainian armed formations. And within the close to future will start a “full-scale offensive”

Regardless of the absence of a common offensive, the RF Armed Forces however proceed to conduct offensive operations within the Izyum course (there’s an advance within the course of Slavyansk, the entrance is approaching Krasny Liman, Yampol and Seversk), in addition to within the Zaporozhye course east of Gulyaipol. However it’s apparent that many of the forces haven’t but been put into motion.”

So the vital distinction above is that Russia introduced a 2nd part, they didn’t particularly announce a brand new common offensive. The 2 usually are not essentially interoperable. The actual fact of the matter is, there are nonetheless giant regroupings being achieved and we’re not seeing a lot large-scale offensive operations in many of the theaters on the Russian facet – many of the bigger advances are being achieved within the LPR in the meanwhile.

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Simply yesterday, the Russian Naval Infantry / Marines detachment from Mariupol had solely begun to redeploy, and had been seen driving on the highway north of Mariupol. It may very well be days earlier than they attain their new positions – which we don’t know what they’re but.

And now we hear different affirmation akin to the next: “@anna_news
Concerning the final offensive of the RF Armed Forces, sources are popping out, citing British sources, that the offensive will start inside 72 hours.”

And: “The pinnacle of the administration of Krivoy Rog Alexander Vilkul mentioned that Russian troops are making ready for an assault on Krivoy Rog.”

So these indications seem to level to a a lot bigger grand offensive beginning someday quickly.

With that mentioned, there have been some good/important battlefield updates and advances, largely within the LPR course:

Novotoshkovske was captured, south of Severodonetsk (NE of Popasna).

Zarichne was reportedly captured as effectively, which is true subsequent to Torske which we reported captured final time:

And now there’s reported combating in Yampol which suggests it should quickly fall as effectively. Should you look on the map meaning Lyman is being slowly surrounded, and that’s the ultimate giant impediment earlier than Slavyansk itself.

Right here’s an excellent total map of this space:

We reported Lozove falling final time, however now the small settlement of Ridkodub simply east of it has reportedly been captured as effectively, which creates a slowly enveloping unified entrance that’s pushing southward in the direction of Slavyansk.

South of Izyum, it’s now being reported that Russian forces captured the small settlement of Kurulka, east of Barvinkove.

These are small, incremental features however will add up quickly, notably if a bigger offensive begins.

Right here’s some footage of the seize of Kreminna just a few days in the past:

Alt hyperlink:

Additionally, within the far north, AFU tried an offensive in the direction of the Russian border. One other one in every of their psychological ops to attempt to preserve morale afloat. It ended badly for them and images/movies emerged displaying the lack of a number of armored items and as much as 30 KIA:



There’s much more grotesque images of some lifeless AFU on this escapade with their heads blown off, which aren’t included within the above.

Right here’s what one analyst wrote of the try:

“The bloody failure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on this case will drive them to attract conclusions and put together the following such try extra rigorously.
She positively will. It doesn’t have any navy functions. The duty is to invade the territory of the Russian Federation with infantry and tools a minimum of just a few hundred meters at any price and announce the “switch of struggle” to the territory of the Russian Federation. Even when they’re then pushed again, it is not going to harm to advertise the victory in social networks to boost the morale of the troops.
Nicely, the truth that such PR shall be costly hardly confuses his prospects. They’ve repeatedly demonstrated their actual angle in the direction of the killed and captured UAF troopers.”

On the southern entrance, no actual advances however some attention-grabbing updates. Firstly there’s been quite a lot of troop captures, together with some close to Malinovka simply east of Hulipole. 17 had been captured, pictured right here:

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Captured fighters

Reportedly 2 of them had been Azovs, 1 a international teacher, and one Croat. What’s attention-grabbing is that an increasing number of we’re seeing international fighters among the many AFU troop compositions. There’s been 3 completely different new movies displaying fighters with British flags, this being one in every of them:

I posted final time a British flag on a liquidated fighter. Now additionally within the north Russians recovered a chevron that’s mentioned to be of a Sergeant within the French Overseas Legion:

In every single place you look now on the battlefield there are international flags. Right here’s an earlier video of the storming of Rubizhnoe, with American flags seen for some cause:

Now there’s experiences {that a} Canadian Basic could also be one of many excessive worth targets trapped in Azovstal:

There isn’t any actual particulars about him being in Azovstal, and this seems hypothesis partly stemming from experiences he hasn’t been “heard from” in Ukraine. Nonetheless his departure to Ukraine is a 100% confirmed reality reported in Canada’s personal press:

The truth is the final was underneath hearth for intercourse crimes and appeared to have “retired” and shortly fled to Ukraine to dodge repercussions. He’d make an excellent bedfellow to the Azovites in Azovstal. Some have even speculated that, because the alleged ‘American common’ who was presupposed to be trapped in Azovstal additionally has an identical final title that begins with a ‘C’ (Cloutier), that maybe a mistake was made and all this speak of a trapped common is in reality this Canadian named Cadieu.

Now, a Turkish newspaper is claiming Macron deserted over 50 French officers who’re trapped in Azovstal:

“In line with the supply, these are high-rank French officers. They’re on the bottom to make sure that Ukrainian navy & neo-Nazis are in a position to make use of the weapons handed over by the Western nations. They’re entrapped now and solely method out to undergo the hall by Russian facet.”

You’ll be able to translate the article right here:

On the subject of Azovstal, some attention-grabbing updates:

Firstly, extra gentle is being shone on the insides of it, leaked footage displaying wounded Azov fighters and a few of their milieu.

A video has additionally emerged displaying the rotting Azov wounded festering of their subterranean dwellings:

Some Azov fighters handle to sneak out and are caught by the allied cordon across the plant. Right here’s one who factors out his personal lifeless commander to the Chechens who caught him:

Right here’s an Azov fighter captured by Chechens who begins displaying them the maps of the place the Azov group is hidden within the manufacturing facility:

And a video of an ex-employee of the Azovstal who was as soon as a shift supervisor there, who has volunteered his experience to indicate the seemingly place the place the principle Azov group is hiding within the advanced:

“An underground pedestrian tunnel passes underneath the plate store, proper underneath it the exit goes contained in the store, two exits – within the TLC itself. If the workshop is scorching, then there’s a highly effective water provide system for cooling tools and steel, after which there are essentially highly effective strengthened concrete sedimentation tanks there,” Chuprin mentioned.”

As you may see, the operation to root the Azovites out nonetheless continues regardless of Putin’s decree to not ‘storm’ the advanced. They’re abiding by the decree however are merely going about it the good method, determining precisely the place Azov is within the advanced after which discovering an answer to root them out.

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The truth is Alexander Sladkov continues to indicate the advances into the north of the advanced, the “cement manufacturing facility’ grounds:

And right here’s a map:

The captured cement manufacturing facility is the northernmost a part of the Azovstal advanced, with the orange dotted traces you see above.

Right here’s how Azov is outwardly consuming down there:

Just a few random updates:

Zelensky commented on the Bayraktar drones, admitting their futility in opposition to Russian AD: “However with all due respect, I’ll truthfully say that it is a completely different struggle, specialists say, it can’t be in contrast with another within the twenty first century. These or different drones may also help, however don’t have an effect on the end result.”

The truth is there’s one account on Twitter who’s counting every day since Bayraktar’s final look within the type of any footage, and we’re someplace previous 36-40 day mark because the final footage of any type of Bayraktar assault has appeared.

Superior American Harris-Falcon encrypted battlefield comms methods had been captured by Russian forces:

(alt hyperlink)

Final time we talked about how the corrupt OSCE was outed, its worker arrested for espionage. And I spoke of tales how OSCE was even doing artillery hearth correction for the AFU.

Now: “the Ministry of State Safety of the LPR discovered paperwork confirming the interplay of the OSCE SMM with the Ministry of Protection of Ukraine. Amongst different issues, a “listing of infrastructure services within the Luhansk area that could be topic to fireplace injury” was discovered, indicating their location.”

Info was collected by the top of the OSCE Severodonetsk crew, a citizen of Poland, Yaroslav Kurak. The order to start out gathering info was given
Deputy Head of the OSCE Lugansk Human Rights Crew Pilar Castro Moto, a Spanish citizen.”

OSCE Worker Admits To Passing Info To Overseas Intelligence Providers – LPR

“The Inside Ministry of the LPR has proven paperwork confirming that the OSCE particular monitoring mission has been working for a very long time within the pursuits of the Ministry of Protection of Ukraine.”

Additionally it’s been found that France has been supplying ammunition to the AFU “by diplomatic mail presumably on board civilian plane. Containers with cartridges of 12.7 mm caliber had been discovered at one of many positions of Ukrainian safety forces in Donbass, the place the addressee is the French Embassy in Kiev.”

And a brand new ballot has reportedly discovered:

“75% of Chinese language residents assist the Russian operation in #Ukraine. The corresponding knowledge is supplied by the U.S — China Notion Monitor research. 60% of respondents imagine that #China ought to assist the Russian operation in Ukraine. 16% had been in favor of offering weapons for the Russian military, if crucial. 70% of respondents take into account the details about American organic laboratories in #Ukraine dependable. #China has already mentioned that the principle wrongdoer of all current occasions is the USA and #NATO, and arms provides to #Kiev is not going to carry peace to #Ukraine. 3/3”

Chinese Public Opinion on the War in Ukraine

First look of Polish suicide drones referred to as Warmate in Ukraine:

By the way in which, some within the West are apparently slowly beginning to come round to the truth, and new excuses are quick being solid.