Sitrep: Operation Z, April 22, 2022

By Nightvision for the Saker Weblog The largest improvement is the announcement by Russia/Putin of…

By Nightvision for the Saker Weblog

The largest improvement is the announcement by Russia/Putin of Mariupol’s “official liberation.” I’ve written earlier than about how Russia typically ‘jumps the gun’ on bulletins, nevertheless it’s true that the town correct is liberated except for the economic complicated of Azovstal. With that mentioned, there are nonetheless upwards of 2000 or extra extremely educated, fanatical Azov militants and marine remnants of the 36th Brigade holed up within the manufacturing facility, and so they have excessive quantities of incentive to not give up any time quickly.

Bizarrely, western media continues to discuss with Mariupol as ‘besieged’ and even Zelensky now claims Mariupol will probably be taken again quickly and {that a} drive is being ‘ready’ to liberate the town from Russians. It’s laborious to discern if that is full delusion or pure propaganda – perhaps a mixture of each.

Putin additionally introduced the cancellation of plans to ‘storm’ the complicated with the intention to scale back dangers to Russian servicemen, as an alternative opting to besiege it and starve the Zelensky regime militants out.

DPR flag was hung on the highest level of Mariupol in honor of the liberation:

On the subject of sieging the Azovstal, some further data: Firstly, in keeping with well-connected Aleksandr Sladkov, the sieged Azovstal remnants have round two weeks’ price of meals/provides nonetheless left and that that they had rather more nevertheless it was destroyed in Russian strikes. So my unique guess was roughly correct that they may theoretically maintain out one other week or two, perhaps extra.

However with that mentioned, the remaining allied forces won’t merely stand idly by and ‘wait them out’. The tactic will probably be to proceed air and artillery strikes on the manufacturing facility complicated with the intention to hold the psychological strain on the Azovites excessive to speed up their eventual give up. So common fight will proceed across the complicated, however the troops merely won’t try and do the job of ‘tunnel rats’ and storm the ‘catacombs’ as Putin put it. As you realize some enemy forces nonetheless preserve positions on the floor, in buildings and many others., and people will proceed to be engaged and eradicated whereas those deep under wait and fester.

“The blockade ring across the [Azovstal] plant is now saturated with technical reconnaissance tools, drones are consistently within the air.” We talked with the previous chief of workers of the Alfa anti-terror group, Sergey Polyakov, about methods to clear up Azovstal from nationalists: If somebody leans out of the bottom by the exits from bunkers or storm sewers, and even with a mortar, artillery fireplace opens on him. Whether or not it’s throughout the day or at evening.” Based on Polyakov, aviation will proceed preventive level bombing: Following the fireplace strikes, our assault teams will transfer ahead. At this time they took the Azovstal plant administration. And so it’s going to proceed: the positions of the enemy will probably be gnawed out meter by meter. Time is now working for us.”

In the meantime, the Somali Battalion has already been absolutely recalled for redeployment again to the Donbass, headed largely to the Avdiivka frontline.

Chechens additionally have fun the liberation:

Russian tankers are completely happy as effectively:

A whole lot of reconstruction and cleansing up is already occurring round Mariupol, administrative companies returning and the like. First faculty courses in some sections as effectively. Different cities across the area and elsewhere are already de facto integrating into the Russian Federation an increasing number of. For example passes being issued in Berdiansk for official automobiles at the moment are being registered with a seal that claims Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Berdiansk, Russia.

And in liberated LPR cities like Svatove and Starobelsk, LPR license plates for vehicles are already being issued to switch Ukrainian ones.

A Ukrainian politician has acknowledged the next: “Ludmila Denisova, Ukrainian Parliament’s Commissioner for Human Rights, says that the Russians are planning to carry an independence referendum in Kherson throughout Could 1-Could 10 to create one other DNR and LNR like statelet in southern Ukraine. Ballots are reportedly being printed.”


“Crimean Tatars assist the inclusion of Kherson and Zaporozhye areas within the Crimean Federal District. The Crimean Tatars proposed to recreate the Crimean Federal District with the inclusion of the south of Ukraine. This assertion was made by the top of the regional national-cultural autonomy of the Crimean Tatars Eyvaz Umerov.”

“Residents of the Kherson and Azov elements of the Zaporozhye areas of Ukraine, who as soon as belonged to the Tauride province along with Crimea, converse of their need to return to Russia, as a result of they not need to be underneath the yoke of Ukrainian nationalists

“No less than 2/3 of the residents of southern Ukraine, specifically, Kherson oblast, elements of Nikolayev oblast and Zaporozhye, would vote in favor of becoming a member of Russia, if an acceptable referendum had been to be held”, says Crimean senator of the Russian Federation Council Sergei Tsekov

At this time Ukraine threatened that if ‘Russia holds a referendum for the Kherson Folks’s Republic, then Ukraine will withdraw from all negotiations with Russia.’ Probably Russia isn’t frightened.

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And now there’s phrase that Kharkov too could finally be allowed to carry a referendum, giving us a clue as to Russia’s final imaginative and prescient for Kharkov Oblast.

“Following the stabilization of the state of affairs within the liberated territories of the Kharkov area, a referendum or a ballot of residents will be held on the political way forward for the area, head of the interim political administration of the liberated Kharkov area, informed RIA Novosti.”

Rustam Minnekaev, deputy commander of the Central Navy District of Russia has acknowledged that the aim of Part 2 is to seize Donbass and create land hall to Crimea. Then Peskov reaffirmed the aim to combine a lot of the southern areas of Ukraine into the ‘Russian area’.

‘Minnekayev additionally mentioned that controlling southern Ukraine would open “one other strategy to Transnistria,” the place he claimed “there are additionally cases of oppressing the Russian-speaking inhabitants.”’


It’s wanting an increasing number of possible that some model of the map above is the minimal of what’s going to come about on account of the SMO. I say minimal as a result of there is no such thing as a indication in any way that Part 2 is the “remaining section”, merely that these are roughly the goals of Part 2. There could very effectively be additional phases to seize the remainder of Ukraine, though even when/when captured, Russia will almost certainly not incorporate these territories however somewhat conduct regime change and thorough de-militarization/de-nazification on the remaining rump-state of Ukraine to ensure it can’t be a menace ever once more.

In different information, a gaggle of Communist Celebration deputies led by Gennady Zyuganov proposed a invoice to the State Duma to alter the nationwide flag of Russia. They suggest to switch the white-blue-red stripes with the Soviet purple banner with a hammer and sickle. Uncertain that it will work however they’re clearly attempting to experience the brand new wave of patriotism.

Additionally, Russia will improve the manufacturing of Kalibr missiles.

“This conclusion is made by the analyst “InformNapalm” Anton Pavlushko on the idea of knowledge discoveries.
He cites data that the UEC-Saturn plant within the Russian metropolis of Rybinsk, Yaroslavl Area, is recruiting as much as 500 new staff as a consequence of “improve in manufacturing volumes.” It’s at this plant that engines for Caliber missiles are produced.
After which our Western mates acquired excited, as a result of in keeping with their model, Russia has lengthy since run out of missiles, and there’s nothing to supply new ones from.”

With that mentioned there seems to be sabotage strikes aimed toward stopping these efforts as yesterday an essential navy analysis facility in Russia all of a sudden burned down with 7 useless and 20-30 injured. It occurred in the identical day that a big chemical plant additionally caught fireplace underneath suspicious circumstances.

However to not be ignored, the U.S. suffered its personal humiliation. A B-1B lancer, one of many U.S.’s most superior supersonic bombers price $300 million, burned down throughout routine upkeep. The entire fleet was grounded final 12 months to research issues with the gas system – I assume they by no means managed to repair them. The entire fleet appears in hassle.

One other attention-grabbing improvement, within the Donbass a member of the OSCE was arrested for espionage.

OSCE worker detained

An increasing number of studies lately have come to gentle displaying how deviously the OSCE has been working. One report mentioned that OSCE officers even supplied artillery fireplace correction for the AFU forces by leaving cameras on their vehicles within the neighborhood which transmitted feeds to the AFU. The group has really been uncovered as a clandestine operation for the West akin to the White Helmets.

On the warfare entrance, Russia has begun bombing rail infrastructure, this time putting bridges and railways in Zaporizhzhia and Dnieperpetrovsk to hamper AFU resupplies.

“BREAKING: A Russia strike within the north of Mykolaiv Oblast has killed as much as 80 Ukrainian troopers and destroyed 23 Armoured automobiles, together with a command put up.”

It additionally took management of a large secret underground arsenal within the Kharkov area, which is claimed to be the most important in all of Ukraine.

This underground bunker has a storied historical past, reportedly inbuilt WW1 to produce the Russian military and was used strategically in WW2 as effectively. There seems to be 1000’s of tons of constructed up armaments, together with western artillery ammo, and many others that’s now seized by the RF.


On the frontlines, probably the most important advances occurred within the north the place it’s now being reported by the Ukrainian aspect that Russia has in reality taken Lozove which is a key metropolis on the way in which to Lyman which itself is the ultimate key strategic metropolis to encircling Slavyansk, as Lyman controls essential transportation corridors within the area.

 Final time we reported Kreminna and Torske space falling to RF forces (purple circles on the fitting). However now there’s reported preventing both in or on the outskirts of Lyman. A number of buildings in Lyman had been recorded on fireplace and sounds of loud gunfire exchanges as effectively, so Lyman seems to be within the crosshairs subsequent.

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Nevertheless on the Izyum entrance to the west, RF forces nonetheless haven’t been in a position to break by to Dovhen’ke (blue circle) as that forested space continues to be an issue with hidden Ukrainian items making breakthrough troublesome.

 On the southern entrance, no main advances however the important thing strategic city of Velyka Novosilka continues to be encircled with settlements on its western flank falling to RF forces.

In the meantime Nasa Fireplace Map continues to indicate the fires transferring progressively westward in Popasna, which is an effective signal and affirmation that allied forces are in reality pushing out the AFU from the town. I say ‘allied forces’ particularly right here as a result of Popasna is claimed to have a mixture of LPR troops, Chechens redirected from Mariupol, and Russian Wagner PMC forces working concurrently.

France, by the way in which is now meaning to ship these artillery methods to Ukraine

A number of essential phrases on ways. We’ve spoke earlier than about how the battle in Ukraine is changing into Syrianized within the ways of the AFU who, having most of their heavy weapons/armor destroyed, are largely now counting on small bandit teams/DRG’s driving round on tacticals (small pickup vehicles with bigger caliber machine weapons within the again) within the method of ISIS. Like this:

However the hunter is quick changing into the hunted as a result of Russia’s personal saboteur teams at the moment are more and more ambushing these small, roving bandit groups:

Remember, the AFU does have some armor and heavy weapons left, however most of them are tied to the strategically essential cities they’re defending, and they don’t have the gas or logistical capabilities to make the most of their armor in any form of maneuvering drive motion or actual navy operations/advances. They’re hidden largely in and round cities like Kharkov, Nikolayev, and many others. Any armor that roams outward could be very shortly destroyed by RF forces. And even nonetheless, within the city agglomerations there’s not a variety of it comparatively talking.

One other essential level that have to be made. Within the early elements of the SMO, a giant deal was made by Kiev round this legendary partisan mobilization that was set to happen. Superb campaigns of patriotic partisan fighters had been heralded in numerous posters and clips, Molotov cocktail campaigns had been paraded on western information channels and we had been informed that each Ukrainian citizen would stand up towards the Russian invader. Every day there was a brand new announcement, akin to Zelensky’s bid to pay residents tens of 1000’s $$$ of {dollars} (funded by the West / CIA in fact) for anybody who can kill/seize a Russian soldier or demonstrably destroy a Russian tank or armored car. Equally, upwards of $1 million {dollars} was supplied to Russian servicemen who would defect and switch over their tank or aircraft to the AFU.

Not solely did any of this ever happen, in reality we noticed final time that it was the AFU itself who started promoting their tanks to the Russians for Rubles. However the principle level to be made is that the enormous, widespread partisan rebellion was in reality a whole and utter failure. Not solely is the overwhelming majority of the Ukrainian citizenry completely apathetic/ambivalent in the direction of their very own armed forces, however there are an increasing number of indicators of inner uprisings and new anti-Kiev regime partisan ‘underground cells’ being fashioned in cities like Nikolayev and Kharkov. One in Kharkov even launched a video, their faces masked, promising an rebellion towards the AFU forces holding them hostage, as soon as Russian forces start absolutely taking the town.

Different footage like this continues to emerge:

Exhibiting offended civilians booting out their failing AFU goons from their cities.

The reality is, the longer the battle goes on, the extra the Ukrainian citizenry turns towards their very own forces and authorities, not solely due to mounting proof of the AFU’s crimes towards their very own residents/civilians however just because they tire of the warfare and had been by no means passionate in regards to the completely corrupt Zelensky regime and its legal navy forces anyway.

After the preliminary one or two Molotov movies towards RF troops within the first week of the warfare, we by no means once more noticed any residents attacking Russian troops and actually see the other every day. Now every time we see new Russian missile strikes filmed by Ukrainian residents, it’s fairly often accompanied by a whole ambivalence and even quiet jubilation from the individuals filming.

It must be acknowledged that the grand promised awakening of the Ukrainian state, and the massive scale partisan rebellion was a whole failure – simply hole psyop makes an attempt from the Zelensky regime.

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Now as allied forces grind down the AFU, every day the Ukrainian Ministry of Protection posts new claims of Russian losses that are by no means backed up with visible proof. Right here and there a photograph of an empty tank is posted however by no means any our bodies. In the meantime, our aspect continues to indicate incontrovertible proof of large, horrific losses on the AFU aspect within the new pushes. Right here’s a number of new movies. You’ll be able to inform they’re current as a result of the AFU are sporting the brand new inexperienced armbands after they began switching from blue in lots of areas.

Very graphic (18+) (features a liquidated British mercenary)

We see repeated studies of complete items of the AFU being worn out, and our aspect really has the laborious proof within the type of clear images and movies. It’s clear that the AFU is dropping 1000’s of troops per week. In truth yesterday’s report was over 400 killed simply that day alone. There was 300+ killed a number of days in the past as effectively within the many strikes that occurred.

And these are simply the useless, there are dozens of latest prisoners day by day. Within the final day alone I can’t rely the quantity of latest prisoner movies which can be flooding telegram, largely from the Popasna and Donbass fights. I’d estimate at the least 100+ prisoners up to now two days based mostly on the avalanche of latest images/movies.

On that observe, one remaining factor. It’s develop into sadly apparent that the sheer propaganda from their very own commanders is what’s holding the remainder of the AFU from laying down their arms. Right here’s a report from a day in the past:

“Because the starting of the navy operation and the looks of Ukrainian prisoners, lots of them inform how the Ukrainian command intimidated them with inhuman torture in Russian captivity. They had been satisfied that Russian officers would torture them, lower them with belts, burn them alive, and many others. Having been taken prisoner, they had been shocked on the humane angle in the direction of their depressing skins. Nevertheless, there are circumstances when Ukrainian troopers, believing within the tales of their commanders, attempt to commit suicide so as to not be captured by Russian “sadists”.”

And such a real story emerged yesterday when two new prisoners had been captured, one in all them mentioned how their very own commander shot himself within the head when the Russian forces approached. Nevertheless this commander missed and the bullet went by his jaw – he survived and was handled in captivity. There’s a photograph of him floating round, I’ll put up if I can discover it once more.

“The photograph reveals a Ukrainian officer who was captured together with his fighters within the space of ​​n. Staromayorskoe village (DPR). However he believed within the tales of his command about torture and determined to go away for an additional world shortly. He tried to shoot himself, placing the muzzle of his machine gun to his chin, however he selected the improper trajectory – and the bullet went by the jaw. Now he must be handled. However this suicide will now be capable of make it possible for the military-political management of Ukraine are liars and traitors.”

The irony is that the Ukrainians are terrified to give up to the Russians as a result of their command lies to them of the ‘barbarity’ of the Russians with claims they’re brutally torturing and killing all captives, hiding the reality from them that it’s in reality their very own aspect that’s doing that to Russian POWs. And the identical tactic is used on civilians in besieged cities like Kharkov to maintain them from rising up or evacuating. They shoot all civilians who attempt to go away then say it’s the Russians who’re taking pictures all vehicles on the highway.

I’ll go away with a number of remaining movies. There’s been individuals consistently asking whether or not Russian forces have evening time capabilities, nightvision, FLIR, and many others, and many others. Right here’s some new movies displaying Russian particular forces taking out Ukrainian positions at evening:

And lastly, I used to be made conscious that final month India examined a Sukhoi launched Brahmos missile on one in all their decommissioned Navy ships. Examine the images of the injury right here:

It appears to be like nothing just like the minor fireplace injury we see on the Moskva from the portholes and torpedo tubes as I’ve outlined final time: But it matches each different actual missile hit like the united statesStark and different ships. Moskva is the odd-ball out that appears nothing just like the others.

Positive the Brahmos is a bigger missile, however Ukrainians declare a number of Neptunes hit the Moskva. Simply extra meals for thought and additional proof that the Neptune strikes are unlikely as the reason for the Moskva’s sinking.