Sitrep: Operation Z, April 20, 2022

Let’s begin with the plain, that every one bells are sounding relating to the beginning…

Let’s begin with the plain, that every one bells are sounding relating to the beginning of the a lot awaited ‘Part 2’ of the SMO. Nevertheless, I for one am not but completely satisfied it has absolutely begun and take the facet of warning consistent with what the Pentagon and analysts like Colonel Cassad have said:

“We’ve got not but noticed offensive actions utilizing giant forces of infantry and tanks, solely native facilities of breakthroughs alongside the Izyum-Kremennaya and Popasnaya traces. Prematurely, to the east of Gulyai-Polye, the place our forces have clearly turn out to be extra lively. Elsewhere, rocket and discipline artillery, aviation and high-precision missiles are intensified in every single place. However to this point the traces of contact haven’t modified. It’s price noting, maybe, the deterioration of the climate within the Donbass.”

“The Pentagon is being rather more conservative in describing Russia’s navy operations in Donbas than Zelensky. U.S. thinks this can be a prelude to an even bigger offensive, with nonetheless including troops. is now as much as 78 BTGs in Ukraine, up 13 from final week.”

I agree within the regard that we haven’t seen the complete utilization of constructed up troops but, nor have all the brand new troops even absolutely accomplished deployment. With that stated, definitely a brand new section of exercise seems to have begun BUT my distinction is just that it now appears that Russia might ‘ramp’ it up more and more, and that it gained’t be an enormous blitzkrieg from the onset because the motion we’ve seen the previous two days continues to be comparatively restricted. This can be a testing section with some Recon-In-Power actions to probe enemy defenses earlier than bigger mixed arms exercise is noticed.

With that stated, some updates:

Firstly there was a big Kaliber missile strike on Lyvov and we at the moment are seeing confirmations from a number of locations of what was struck:

“A stockpile of American, German and British anti-tank missiles was destroyed at a navy depot in Lvov. Based on our supply within the SBU, the assault on the logistics base in Lvov was a whole shock. A number of tens of tons of varied anti-tank weapons have been destroyed on the facility, together with German PanzerFausts, British NLAWs and American Javelins. It was anticipated that these funds ought to be sufficient for a month of lively hostilities in opposition to Russian troops. Based on our supply, the plant was carried out secretly on business and civilian autos. Subsequently, an investigation is now underway as to why the Russians have been ready to determine all three storage websites.”

Good views of a few of the strikes:

(observe, a few of my hyperlinks haven’t been working lately for some purpose. If that turns into the case, merely spotlight the hyperlink, proper click on it, then “copy” and “paste” it manually into your browser for the video to work)

MSNBC analyst turned ‘navy skilled’ Malcolm Nance placed on fairly a efficiency whereas larping in Lvov in the course of the ‘air raid’:

Whereas we’re on the subject of Western arms, right here’s Scott Ritter confirming one thing we’ve written about many occasions, how ineffective the Javelin missile actually is:

Quite a lot of locations have been hit in Nikolayev and Kharkov as effectively, destroying storage amenities and AFU troop gathering factors.

In Mariupol, the advances proceed in numerous axes round Azovstal plant, however nonetheless solely on the outskirts of it. Russian planes and artillery hammer Azovstal nonstop:

In case you discover on the japanese fringe of the purple define on this map, there are nonetheless some blocks of suburb high-rises simply outdoors the precise industrial grounds of Azovstal. There are nonetheless battles and clearings going down in these northeast districts, however it’s just a few blocks left.

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A reported 20-30 new prisoners managed to give up close to Azovstal as effectively, on this video solely a handful are pictured:

Studies are indicating that 80% of the remaining Azov battalion needs to give up, however the 20% who don’t are mainly holding them at gunpoint and refusing to permit them to give up. Increasingly more proof involves gentle as proof of this – as an example this video of an AFU soldier who was shot within the again by his comrades, and had leaflets with give up instructions in his hand (18+):

On the precise 1:13 mark of this video:

you’ll be able to see what the leaflets appear like which might be being fired by artillery over Azovstal. They’ve particular directions on how the prisoners are to give up (for security functions, precisely how they need to come out, what they need to do, the place their palms ought to be, which corridors they need to use, and many others). And you may see the identical leaflet is beneath the physique of the murdered AFU marine.

After which there’s this:

“Based on the content material of the radio intercepts, the commanders of the armed formations remaining at Azovstal, realizing the hopelessness of their state of affairs, are prepared to put down their arms, however solely on the suitable order (command) from Kyiv. With out receiving such an order, the commanders of the Ukrainian armed formations can not decide on their very own, since a navy tribunal with a sentence, as much as and together with execution, awaits them for these actions in Ukraine.”

There have been written orders from Kiev posted that seem to point out a direct no-surrender order from excessive up. For apparent causes the elites in Kiev don’t need these guys to give up, the identical ones they have been sending upwards of 10 helicopters and boats to attempt to rescue. Clearly these guys know an excessive amount of helpful info that they will’t threat to surrender to the Russians and so Kiev prefers they’re killed and their deeds misplaced to historical past.

Serhiy Volyna, commander of the complete 36th Marines Brigade that’s left in Azovstal (and one of many 2 final excessive rating folks there together with Prokopenko the chief of Azov Regiment) has issued this remaining determined plea the place he now says there might solely be ‘days or hours’ left for them:

I’d say there’s nonetheless one other good week or two left until they occur to give up as a result of clearing this big manufacturing facility complicated shall be troublesome. Images have emerged displaying how the subterranean system beneath the complicated works, and it’s no simple job. The plant was evidently designed to face up to nuclear assault so one can think about how deep and fortified a few of the underground programs are. There’s nonetheless no indication of how they really plan to clear it.

Right here you’ll be able to see some items on the outskirts in that block or two earlier than the manufacturing facility, one soldier carrying a jury-rigged breaching stick full of explosives

The above map reveals a few of the incursion areas the place troops are coming into the economic grounds on the northeast nook.

In different areas, the biggest features by far of the twond section have been alongside the Izyum and LPR axis. Russian forces are pushing in from the north downward in direction of the Donets river.

Rubizhnoe was introduced to be completely captured with redirected Chechen SOBR and LPR forces elevating the flags on the entrance:

Nevertheless we’re ready on full affirmation as some sources say there nonetheless could also be a bit of town to the south not liberated.

In the meantime heavy battles proceed in Popasna, a key strategic metropolis, and LPR/Chechen troops are stated to have superior previous the halfway mark of town, and it’s more likely to fall within the close to future. Studies that as a lot as 70-80 prisoners have been taken right here, although a video has solely confirmed a dozen or so to date:

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Artillery hammers Popasna:

Subsequent to Rubizhnoe, the city of Kreminna was additionally absolutely taken. This creates a harmful threat for a cauldron-within-a-cauldron for AFU forces as a result of as soon as Popasna falls, troops can hyperlink up with those within the north by Rubizhnoe/Kreminna, thus trapping the AFU forces in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk within the following method:

So due to this menace, there’s now rising studies that AFU plans a ‘mass retreat’ alongside the Rubizhnoe-Lysychansk-Severodonetsk ‘triangle’, because it’s being known as, so as to forestall this cauldron from being shaped. One should bear in mind there’s a very giant AFU grouping on this ‘triangle’ as it’s the 2nd largest after the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhkivka grouping. Nevertheless different studies have been fast to warning that there won’t be any mass retreats, at the very least not but, and that AFU continues to hold on. With that stated, some captured prisoners within the space said that increased command officers have already pulled again and fled, however there’s no 100% affirmation of this.

From the frontline:

Map of Popasna metropolis management. Popasna in heart. Crimson is LPR forces, blue is AFU. This can be a key metropolis that controls the gateway each west and north to the area.

Northwest of there, Russian forces have made main advances within the Izyum area because the begin of Part 2.

The city of Torske was captured, pictured on this map circled in Crimson:

In addition to a number of settlements round Lozove corresponding to Yatskivka and Rubtsi have been stated to be captured by RF forces – slowly working in direction of Lyman. The forces south of Izyum continued to work in direction of Slavyansk as effectively with unsure outcomes as there’s a closely forested space there that’s reportedly troublesome to work via, with Ukrainian items deeply embedded throughout it.

In brief, there’s heavy strain bearing down now from the north onto the cauldron grouping, and we might ultimately see the Severodonetsk “triangle” turn out to be a cauldron reduce off from the remaining then sieged.

Within the south, Russian forces have made some strikes in direction of Velyka Novosilka and captured a couple of settlements like Makarivka, Storozhevoe, Rovnopol, and Novoselka, nevertheless it’s nothing too massive to talk on but so we’ll wait until subsequent time to replace on this entrance. Both approach, this entrance continues to be possible ready for the autumn of Mariupol to unlock all of the reinforcements earlier than it could actually get into full swing.

In different information: “U.S. has BEGUN coaching about 50 Ukrainian navy advisors on utilizing American supplied howitzer artillery programs at an undisclosed location in Europe: senior U.S. protection official Ukrainians ought to be capable to study to make use of programs inside days, officers consider.”

And the UK is contemplating sending a “handful” of superior Stormer armored autos with Starstreak missile launchers on them.

Personally I feel that is excellent news as a result of it would give Russian forces a uncommon alternative to ‘observe’ and scrimmage in actual time in opposition to the highest NATO gear, to study its secrets and techniques and vulnerabilities. So although it’s a menace, I consider it would solely work in direction of chiseling Russian troops into extra succesful forces in preparation for future battle vs. NATO.

And in gentle of all of the automobile restore retailers, workshops, factories, and many others, that Russia has been hitting, it seems Ukraine is operating out of how to restore its personal autos.

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“The actions of the Russian missile forces, which over the previous few months have been commonly attacking the navy trade amenities of the Kiev regime, have borne fruit. Now the restore of broken gear of the Kiev regime shall be dealt with by Czech protection enterprises. Since Kyiv is not capable of restore armored autos by itself.

Word that the transportation of broken gear to the Czech Republic, its restore and transportation again will take rather more time and value the enemy many occasions extra. In actual fact, it’s simpler to simply purchase a brand new one.”

And on that observe, there’s studies like this one:

“❗️Poland is secretly getting ready a “liberation marketing campaign” in opposition to Ukraine. For this function, a set of measures is being carried out – the provision of weapons, gear and mercenaries throughout the Polish-Ukrainian border. A number of formations of the Polish Military – the 18th motorized rifle division and the sixth airborne brigade – are getting ready for a “peacekeeping mission”

The Polish Military stepped up measures to the utmost extent doable to finish the items to wartime states. The recruitment of “volunteers” is carried out via the web sites of the Ministry of Protection of Poland.”

Unconfirmed in fact, and doubtful nevertheless it’s one thing to consider, and one thing many people have already anticipated for a very long time.

On the subject of funding, it’s been introduced complete support is nearing $3 billion from the U.S. alone.

“U.S. has despatched $2.6 billion in navy support to Ukraine since Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion, with DoD weapons reaching the battlefield inside 48 to 72 hours: senior U.S. protection official”

What’s fascinating about that’s, the U.S. spent 3 billion on funding the Taliban within the 80’s, over the course of a complete decade.

From wiki: “The thrust of U.S. coverage at some point of the warfare was decided by Carter in early 1980: Carter initiated a program to arm the mujahideen via Pakistan’s ISI and secured a pledge from Saudi Arabia to match U.S. funding for this function. U.S. help for the mujahideen accelerated beneath Carter’s successor, Ronald Reagan, at a remaining price to U.S. taxpayers of some $3 billion.”

“Operation Cyclone was one of many longest and costliest covert CIA operations ever undertaken.[2] Funding formally started with $695,000 in mid-1979,[3] was elevated dramatically to $20–$30 million per yr in 1980, and rose to $630 million per yr in 1987,[1][4][5] described because the “largest bequest to any Third World insurgency”.[6]”

So this was the “longest and costliest” CIA operation in historical past, and ended up at $3 billion in 10 years. However the Ukraine has already gotten $3 billion in a single month. Think about how a lot they’re going to pump into it by the tip of this yr? This goes to point out what I’ve stated earlier than that that is possible now the only costliest program of this type in historical past. And that’s solely counting the U.S. support, NATO/EU are pouring in billions extra.

Lastly, like I stated to start with, I don’t consider we’re seeing the complete onset of Part 2 but. It seems to nonetheless be the opening probing stage as the complete obtainable forces have but to be dedicated. However we’ll see if this week confirms this view or not.

I’ll go away a couple of movies from the previous day or so:

Tribute to the legendary Crimson Backpack Man you would possibly’ve all seen main some items in Mariupol:

He’s a commander for a unit of the Russian Black Sea Fleet Naval Infantry (Marines) working in Mariupol.

Illych Plant Cleared (18+)

Chechens coming into and clearing first components of Azovstal complicated (18+):

RF air protection shoots down AFU Su-25 over Izyum: