Russo-Ukrainian Warfare (4) – Shrimpton

The Shrimp is again, refreshed from his trip! As anticipated there’s nonetheless a conflict to…

The Shrimp is again, refreshed from his trip! As anticipated there’s nonetheless a conflict to report on. This one isn’t going to finish any time quickly, though I’m anticipating it to be shorter than the Crimean Warfare (1853-1856). Russia’s change of command, with Basic Aleksandr Dvornikov being put in general command, might be as important as Churchill’s alternative of Basic Auchinleck by Basic Montgomery in August 1942.

Russia’s prosecution of the conflict so far has been marked, I’m sorry to say, by a scarcity of coordination between totally different arms, poor tactical intelligence, a confused technique and a failure to study the teachings of the Iraq Warfare over the necessity to give better safety to important battle tanks engaged in city warfare.

Floor situations in northern Ukraine are clearly not favoring large-scale armored warfare. I make no apology for my continued reference to the significance of floor situations since first predicting a Russian transfer in opposition to Ukraine in November 2020. Russian armor is now largely confined to roads, resulting in the identical issues XXX Corps encountered in 1944 of their drive on Arnhem. If doable it is best to attempt to keep away from queuing tanks on a important street!

Basic Dvornikov

Basic Dvornikov

A graduate of the Frunze Navy Academy and former regimental commander within the well-known Taman Guards Division, Aleksandr Dvornikov is a critical army commander. I ignore the ‘Butcher of Syria’ nonsense. The MSM are virtually incapable of goal touch upon something to do with President Putin, Russia or the Russian army.

It looks like the technique of pulling again the forces besieging Kiev and refocusing on the Donbas has come from Basic Dvornikov. I think that the siege of Kiev will resume as soon as floor situations have firmed up.

The siege of Mariupol appears lastly to be drawing to an in depth. The port had held out for for much longer than I anticipated, however then I didn’t learn about that bioweapons lab beneath the metal works! Mariupol has assumed far better strategic significance than most commentators realised.

It could have began out as a small conflict however it’s turning right into a medium-sized one. If the assault on Kiev actually will not be going to be resumed till the bottom companies up then the conflict goes to enter the summer season. It’s turning right into a conflict of attrition, which the Ukrainians will lose.

The ‘Auk’

Circa 1940, English Basic Sir Claude Auchinleck (1884-1981), who lead campaigns in Norway, Africa and India throughout World Warfare II. (Photograph by Fox Images/Getty Photographs)

I shouldn’t be regarded as saying by the way in which that Area Marshal Sir Claude Auchinleck was a poor soldier. Very removed from it – he was a high-quality commander and did glorious work within the First Battle of El Alamein, the place our neighborhood associate Rommel was stopped, and within the China-Burma-India Theater. He was admittedly extra used to commanding Indian troops and doubtless didn’t select subordinates nicely, however he was a terrific common nonetheless.

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Foolish conflict crimes allegations

There’s no must take the most recent crop of conflict crimes allegations severely. Russian forces had withdrawn from Bucha by 31st March. My evaluation is that the unarmed civilians in query had been massacred by members of the infamous, neo-Nazi Azov Battalion, probably wearing Russian uniforms and posing as Russians.

The Kramatorsk railroad station incident is definitely defined. It appears as if the Ukrainians intentionally intercepted a few Russian missiles with a view to having them crash on to the station and kill fleeing civilians. It’s doable that the missiles landed on the station advanced unintentionally, having been intercepted, however with the evil Ukies, no offense meant, searching for each alternative to kill their very own civilians and blame it on the Russians it might be a shocking coincidence.

The alleged chemical weapons assault appears like a simple set-up, Syria model. I’ve little question that chemical compounds had been used, however they’ll have been equipped by both the Germans or the Ukrainians. They received’t have been wherever close to Russia.

As I’ve identified earlier than if the MSM need fewer civilian deaths they should cease falling for each allegation the Ukies put out. It solely encourages them to homicide extra!

It’s a moot level as as to if these numerous atrocities had been personally sanctioned by President Zelensky. If any of them had been then he needs to be given a good trial and shot, no offense meant.

Who sank the Moskva?


Sadly the Russian guided missile cruiser RFS Moskva sank on Thursday. It appears that evidently her air defenses had been distracted by a number of drones and that she was hit by two Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles, not less than one in every of which struck her personal deck-mounted anti-ship missiles. Fortunately most of her crew appear to have survived.

Initially the lead ship of the Slava class (she was later renamed), she was an aged however highly effective unit whose loss could have been a extreme blow to the Russian Navy. The Ukies and NATO have been planning this conflict for a while. President Putin is correct with respect – Kiev was clearly planning an offensive within the Donbas.

The event of auto mounted anti-ship missiles was clearly an try to counter Russia’s overwhelming superiority within the Black Sea. The Neptune solely grew to become absolutely operational final 12 months, an element which can have affected the timing of the deliberate Ukrainian strike in opposition to the Donbas.

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The GRU are proper with respect to question the extent to which Ukraine acquired worldwide help within the growth of the Neptune, an improve of an earlier Russian missile. Western operatives might even have assisted within the assault on the Moskva in the way in which that French naval personnel fired the Exocet which struck HMS Glamorgan within the Falklands Warfare 40 years in the past.

Dominy, John Rowan; HMS ‘Glamorgan’; Nationwide Museum of the Royal Navy, Portsmouth;

French election wrap

As predicted, placing the matter as neutrally as I can, the pro-German scumbag Emmanuel Macron and that good girl Marine Le Pen are going by means of to the second spherical of the French presidential election on April 24th. There are a selection of variables, making predicting the winner troublesome.

Firstly the election will not be honest. If the Germans can tamper with a US election to get a tame president elected they’ll tamper with a French election. The following variable is how the vote for the third positioned candidate, left-wing nutter, no offense meant, Jean-Luc Melanchon, will break up.

He’s requested his supporters to not vote for Marine, however, intriguingly, hasn’t endorsed Macron. The third massive variable is whether or not Macron can discover some campaigning abilities between now and the 24th. Like many put in politicians he’s good at crawling, no offense meant, however not so good at working.

I think that Melanchon’s vote will break up roughly 3 ways – a couple of third received’t vote in any respect, a couple of third will vote for Macron and a couple of third will vote for Marine. It’s too near name.

Marine is gaining on Macron within the polls. The polls themselves most likely have a 5% bias in opposition to her, and he or she loves cats. She may win. The good  cash might be on the dumb candidate, that’s to say Macron, however watch this area!

This week’s film overview: Operation Mincemeat (2021, dir. John Madden)

Launched to theaters within the UK on Good Friday this excellent film is predicated on Ben Macintyre’s widespread 2010 historical past of probably the most well-known deception operation of World Warfare II, which concerned floating a corpse off the coast of Spain with pretend secret paperwork suggesting that the Allies had been going to invade Greece and Sardinia, not Sicily. The concept initially got here from the good naval intelligence officer Ian Fleming, of 007 fame.

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The story initially appeared on the silver display screen within the 1956 black and white film The Man Who By no means Was, starring Clifton Webb as Lt-Cdr Ewen Montagu KC, the good barrister turned intelligence officer who masterminded the operation. Montagu even appeared within the movie himself, uncredited, as an Air Vice Marshal.

There isn’t a method {that a} fashionable forged might be assembled matching that of the 1956 film, which included Laurence Naismith, William Russell, Moultrie Kelsall, Cyril Cusack, Andre Morell, Sir Michael Hordern, Allan Cuthbertson and Miles Malleson. Nonetheless Operation Mincemeat encompasses a sturdy forged, led by Colin Firth, who performs Ewen Montagu.

The manufacturing requirements are method greater than the 1956 film. An enormous effort has been made to recreate wartime London, with a lot of pre-war vehicles. (Not many new vehicles in wartime Britain, after all.) There are some genuinely humorous moments, and a few transferring ones as nicely.

The particular results, primarily involving the corpse, are very nicely achieved. I significantly appreciated the post-mortem scene in Spain! Coming quickly within the States on Netflix this can be a film nicely price watching.

Nonetheless it doesn’t inform the entire story. How may it? The complete operation was betrayed from the start by the Abwehr’s Frank Foley, who was on the XX Committee, which sanctioned the scheme, and was intently concerned. Not less than two high-ranking German brokers, Dwight D. ‘von’ Eisenhower and Lord Louis Mountbatten, helped present the deception materials.

Admiral Canaris wasn’t fooled for a minute. Hitler was, however then he was simpler to idiot. No fewer than 17 German divisions had been moved to Greece and the Balkans and the liberation of Sicily proceeded easily. Canaris’s belongings in Britain and America had been too precious to lose, so he sacrificed Sicily to guard them. Since he maneuvered Eisenhower into the White Home and Mountbatten into the publish of Chief of the Defence Employees it’s troublesome to fault his judgment. I’d hate to have performed him at chess!

HMS Seraph was the sub concerned in Mincemeat

Completely satisfied Easter!

Completely satisfied Easter everyone! Please preserve the Paypal donations coming! They dried up after I introduced I used to be occurring trip. Perhaps I ought to have defined that it was largely paid for by a sort gentleman buddy!

Thanks for chipping in to maintain my work going.


Naturally I’m going to burden all y’all with a vacation snap – that is me out dolphin watching, and sure a few good dolphins duly put in an look.

Dolphin watching off Gran Canaria