VT: Ought to the US proceed serving to Turkey steal Syrian wheat to make up for possible shortfalls from Ukraine?
On this emotionally heated environment, I have to level out as soon as once more: I don’t translate studies from the Russian media as a result of I wish to interact in Russian propaganda, however as a result of I wish to present how this or that matter is reported on in Russia. It usually occurs that I translate studies on which I utterly or partially disagree. Due to this fact, I at all times mark these translated studies as translations, as a result of I’m not the writer of the studies, I’m solely the messenger.
This be aware was crucial in view of the heated environment, though I want to add that I agree with virtually all factors of this report from Russian tv on Sunday concerning the upcoming commerce struggle.
The West makes no secret of its need to destroy Russia
President Vladimir Putin met with businessmen on Thursday night. Everyone seems to be conscious that Russia is dealing with tough instances. Companies must function below sanctions. Alternatively, whatever the occasions in Ukraine, new anti-Russian sanctions would have been imposed in any case. In spite of everything, those that impose sanctions towards us usually are not concerned about Ukraine in any respect. For the Western international locations, Ukraine has at all times been solely a instrument to include Russia.
On the identical time, in contrast to its Western companions, Russia has no intention of destroying its personal economic system or that of different international locations.
“Russia stays a part of the world economic system. Due to this fact, we don’t intend to hurt the system of the world economic system, of which we ourselves are a component. Due to this fact, I believe that our companions perceive this and mustn’t set themselves the duty of pushing us out of this method. Nonetheless, there will likely be restrictions, additionally for political causes,” Vladimir Putin mentioned.
What situations will the enterprise group must work below? A report by our Germany correspondent.
Within the second half of the week, Ukraine disappeared from the headlines solely as soon as, when Angela Merkel’s pockets was stolen in a retailer. She was the primary of the German chancellors to have such a factor occur to her. In any other case, the media knew solely Ukraine and Russia. Aggression and struggle.
On Thursday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz – for the primary time within the eight years of bloody battle – made the next feedback: “All that is taking place not distant from us, however right here in Europe. Simply two hours away from Berlin by aircraft, households are sitting in air-raid shelters. Girls, males and youngsters concern for his or her lives.”
Lately, on the Munich Safety Convention, he denied the genocide of Russians within the Donbass, calling it ridiculous. But when he himself or his aforementioned predecessor had simply as soon as proven a lot compassion for the harmless residents of Donetsk or Lugansk, if Ms. Baerbock or the Maas or Steinmeier who preceded her on the helm of German diplomacy had not less than as soon as threatened Kiev with sanctions for not implementing the Minsk settlement as a substitute of selling its sabotage, there can be different information than this at present.
“We have already got an entire blockade of Russian banks. So enterprise relations with Russia are virtually over,” mentioned German Finance Minister Christian Lindner.
“We are going to react very clearly: It will destroy Russia,” German Overseas Minister Annalena Baerbock careworn.
This week, the EU adopted two packages of anti-Russian sanctions from Tuesday to
Friday. For the primary time, particular person restrictions had been imposed on Vladimir Putin and Sergei Lavrov – they won’t be barred from coming into the territory of the EU, however their property will likely be frozen. Nevertheless, all are conscious of the symbolic nature of the motion: Putin and Lavrov don’t have any property within the West. Neither does Sergei Shoigu – his identify can be on the sanctions record. Within the monetary sector, Alfa, Otkritie, VTB, Sberbank, Rossiya and Promsvyazbank banks have been sanctioned Brussels at present introduced the freezing of euro-denominated property of the Central Financial institution of Russia.
“As monetary sanctions limit Russia’s entry to key capital markets, we at the moment are concentrating on 70 % of the Russian banking market. But in addition key state-owned enterprises, together with the protection sector. And these sanctions will enhance the price of credit score in Russia, elevate inflation and regularly undermine Russia’s industrial base,” the top of the European Fee, Ursula von der Leyen, is assured.
Within the industrial and transport sectors, the sanctions apply to Aeroflot, Russian Railways, Kamaz, Sovkomflot, Sevmash and Uralvagonzavod. Some 60 corporations from the military-industrial complicated are on the record. The European Fee plans to chop high-tech exports to Russia – from semiconductors to aerospace merchandise – by greater than half.
The British Overseas Workplace says London won’t relaxation till Russia’s economic system is destroyed. The British authorities was the primary in Europe to shut airspace to Russian plane, together with non-public planes. Half of the NATO international locations adopted, together with Germany, whose airspace was closed for 3 months, and Italy, in addition to Sweden, Finland and Austria. As a countermeasure, airways in these international locations should now change their routes to Asia. They are going to be a number of thousand kilometers longer and can price passengers a major extra worth in euros. However nobody is considering that now, within the sanctions frenzy.
“We’ve got to proceed with this to strangle the Russian system,” mentioned French Overseas Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian.
Everyone seems to be now supposed to affix the marketing campaign towards Russia; even the federal government of the unrecognized province of Kosovo has joined the overall refrain in help of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. This was rejected by Serbian President Vucic, a rustic the place, based on him, 85 % of the inhabitants will help Russia below any circumstances. That is Vucic’s response to Ukrainian Ambassador Aleksandrović’s demand that he condemn Moscow’s actions:
“I ask you to name on the President of your nation, Mr. Selensky, to publicly condemn the merciless and tragic aggression dedicated towards Serbia by the US, the UK, Germany and another international locations. I’m positive that he’ll do this. And when he does, I’ll gladly do what Mr. Aleksandrović has requested me to do. It’s in our curiosity to remain on the European path with out jeopardizing good relations with Russia and China,” Vucic careworn.
He’s one of some, the bulk are burning bridges – enthusiastically, in fact. There’s already a 3rd sanctions package deal on the desk and a radical proposal: to disconnect Russia from the SWIFT interbank system.
“We’re speaking about the truth that by this method Russia pays for imports and receives cash for all types of exports, together with power. SWIFT isn’t distinctive, there are options, even a number of, however for European corporations it’s virtually the one mechanism for interplay with enterprise companions in Russia. So shutting down SWIFT means deploying ‘nuclear weapons’ by yourself territory,” mentioned Bruno Le Maire, French finance minister.
“Suspending SWIFT can be technically tough to arrange for and would even have a big impact on cost transactions in Germany,” mentioned Steffen Hebestreit, a spokesman for the German authorities.
That might imply Germany, which is closely depending on Russian gasoline and coal, would lose the power to pay its payments, that means an entire break in power cooperation with Russia and a disaster for every part. The Wooden Mackenzie power consulting group makes an apocalyptic prediction for this eventuality: the top of financial development and the destruction of state budgets.
“If all Russian gasoline had been minimize off, Europe wouldn’t stand an opportunity. We’d be confronted with a catastrophic scenario during which gasoline reserves would have a tendency towards zero subsequent winter. Costs can be exorbitantly excessive. Business must shut down. Inflation would skyrocket. The European power disaster might nicely set off a world recession,” Ekaterina Filippenko, chief analyst for European gasoline analysis at Wooden Mackenzie, advised CNBC.
The obvious doubts of a number of international locations’ governments, together with Italy, concerning the want for such sacrifices have had a relaxing impact in the marketplace, which was shaken earlier this week by information of the moratorium on Nord Stream 2 certification in response to Russia’s recognition of the Individuals’s Republics within the Donbass. From $1,600 per thousand cubic meters, costs have fallen to round $1,100. Nevertheless, the difficulty of commissioning the brand new pipeline appears to be off the desk for the foreseeable future, which lowers the possibilities that gasoline costs will not less than come near pre-crisis costs. Particularly since European gasoline reserves are already beneath 30 %. The People will likely be joyful to make earnings – that’s what it’s all about – however neither they nor all the choice suppliers mixed will be capable to make up for the gasoline scarcity with liquefied gasoline provides.
“Europe has been very energetic in utilizing gasoline storage services throughout the winter interval. They had been stuffed on the previous costs, together with with Russian gasoline. However now they arrive out of the winter with empty storages. The worth in the marketplace is extremely excessive. What to do? Proceed to purchase American liquefied gasoline and retailer it for the following winter and thank them? Have Europeans grown so fats of their years of joyful dwelling that they’re keen to experiment on this manner? Hardly,” says one knowledgeable.
However Germany is below stress and may be crushed, simply as arms deliveries to Ukraine had been pushed by. The day earlier than, it was introduced that 400 German-made antitank techniques can be delivered by way of the Netherlands. The U.S. desires to impose a struggle of attrition with Russia on Europe. Die Zeit” asks the appropriate query: Who is healthier ready for such a confrontation? And it’s not solely about power sector revenues and overseas alternate reserves of $643 billion, but additionally about the truth that Russia has drawn conclusions from the sanctions wars.
“After the EU sanctions, Putin imposed a meals embargo on the EU in 2014. Since then, Russian agriculture has thrived in isolation, and Russia is essentially self-sufficient in lots of meals merchandise. Bread appears significantly good, as Russia is the world’s second largest wheat producer after India. Russia is the biggest exporter, accounting for 20 % of the worldwide wheat commerce,” writes Die Zeit.
Within the worst-case situation for Europe, if Ukraine had been to go away the ranks of exporters, Russia would management as much as a 3rd of the wheat market. How a lot will a bread roll price in Germany or a plate of spaghetti in Italy if the commerce struggle goes into full swing? Isn’t it actually a query of who’s keen to poke extra holes of their belt?
“We’re in the beginning of an actual commerce struggle that will likely be very surprising for a lot of. Nobody has calculated the implications: How will Russia react, will it instantly cease visitors by its territory, will power develop into terribly costly and the cash raised to unravel the issues and shocks of the pandemic will likely be wanted to pay for it? A commerce struggle would hit the Russian economic system very arduous, however many consultants say that life within the West would develop into sensitively worse,” mentioned political analyst Alexander Rahr.
On Saturday night, the German authorities mentioned that in precept it will not object to disconnecting Russia from SWIFT, however one way or the other sectorally, in order to not have an effect on funds for power. Nevertheless, with sanctions, it usually occurs that the claw will get caught and the entire chook is misplaced.
On Wednesday, Europe woke as much as a brand new world and a brand new time. Nobody can say what’s going to occur subsequent, so that is in no way a prediction, only a thought starter: instances have modified many instances, all kinds of issues have occurred, however one factor has remained fixed: When united Europe has got down to destroy Russia, it has at all times backfired in the long run. Finish of translation