Regime Change in Pakistan

The US in its bid to maintain the world underneath its hegemony, makes use of…

The US in its bid to maintain the world underneath its hegemony, makes use of its army would possibly, diplomatic clout and different coercive instruments to terrify the third world nations and until now has been fairly profitable. It has managed to put in puppet regimes within the growing nations and whichever ruler defied its dictates was both faraway from energy or assassinated.

Regimes have been modified by the US both by way of invasions, or fomenting insurgency or a political motion, or with the assistance of the army or the politicians in opposition.

Ups & downs in Pak-US relations

Pakistan has remained within the camp of the US since 1954 and had change into its most allied ally. Pakistan first leaned in direction of China after seeing the discriminatory conduct of the US within the aftermath of Sino-India border conflict in 1962, after which within the 1965 warfare. Pak-China friendship steadily grew stronger as a result of the US most popular India over Pakistan.

The US tilt towards India turned extra pronounced after 1990 and each turned strategic companions. Pakistan turned essentially the most sanctioned nation as a consequence of which its sturdy financial system dwindled and by no means stabilized. The US extremely discriminatory coverage compelled Pakistan to forge strategic relationship with China and to normalize relations with Russia.

It’s on this backdrop that Pakistan underneath former PM Imran Khan (IK) began shedding off the magic spell of Washington by making its overseas coverage impartial. The change got here from ‘do extra to no extra to utterly not’ and refusal to provide a army base to the imperious USA. IK declined the invitation of Biden to attend the democracy summit, attended Olympics ceremony in Beijing and visited Moscow final February towards the desires of the US. Pakistan adopted a impartial coverage over the difficulty of Ukraine and abstained from voting within the UN. Pakistan is extending help to Afghanistan which is present process humanitarian disaster. All these acts coupled with IK’s inclination to make Pakistan an Islamic welfare state displeased Joe Biden and in anger he by no means phoned him.

In step with its outdated custom, the US launched a regime change operation to be able to exchange the IK regime with a compliant regime. The regime change is a prelude to the larger sport plan, the aims of which had been framed after 9/11. Earlier than going for Pakistan’s nuclear program, the following goal can be to separate Baluchistan.

Pakistan’s inanities and dependence upon the USA

Ever since Pakistan acquired wedded with the USA, it has gone by way of painful experiences. It has paid a heavy value for its mistake to place all its eggs within the basket of double-dealing USA. The US has used it for reaching its quick time period aims after which discarded it like a used tissue paper. It has been continuously meddling into the inner affairs of Pakistan to maintain it in line.

It was simple for the US to deal with Pakistan as its satellite tv for pc state since all of the army and political leaders of Pakistan pursued a coverage of appeasement to maintain the imperialist USA in good humor. The politicians and the media in Pakistan promote their souls and make compromises on nationwide pursuits cheaply. Our political leaders have been in search of American assist every time in misery, or blamed the army institution for his or her misfortunes. Some even sought India’s assist.

PTI-PDM tussle

The 9-party Pakistan Democratic Motion (PDM), which in a while morphed right into a 13-party alliance constructed a story towards the ruling PTI regime that it was a celebration chosen by the army institution and as a consequence of its incompetence, inflation and costs spiraled to document breaking ranges in its 3 ½ years tenure, the financial system slumped, and the lives of the individuals turned wretched. The institution was jeered over its poor choice.

As soon as the ruling regime didn’t fulfil its tall guarantees and couldn’t present any reduction to the lots, the narrative of the PDM started to enchantment to the senses of the disillusioned individuals. Their rising resentment galvanized the spirits of the PDM.  So long as the army was on one-page with the ruling get together, the PDM remained weak and divided, however no sooner the army turned impartial, the squabbling opposition rived in infighting events acquired united.

Suspected monetary help of the US to the PDM may very well be another excuse of their boosted spirits. The 2 main events PML-N and PPP used the soiled cash generously on horse buying and selling to win over the loyalties of PTI’s dissident MNAs and to entice the allies of the PTI — MQM-P, PML-Q and BAP in addition to Jahangir Tareen-Aleem teams to their aspect.

The conspiratorial letter

Pakistan’s outgoing Ambassador in Washington Asad Majeed despatched a telegraphic cable to the International Workplace on March 7, giving particulars of his assembly with the US undersecretary of South Asian Affairs Donald Lu. The latter expressed his discomfiture over IK’s go to to Moscow and Pakistan abstaining from voting within the UN to sentence Russian invasion of Ukraine. He acknowledged that if he didn’t mend his methods, a No-Confidence Movement (NCM) can be introduced towards him.

He summed up by saying that any regime aside from IK can be acceptable and forgivable. The menace was conveyed overtly since by no means earlier than any Pakistani civil or army chief had defied the dictates of Washington.

Battle for regime change

The battle for regime change began after the PDM moved a NCM on March 8. The PTI didn’t connect a lot significance to the ‘letter-gate’, since such threats had been a routine affair. Above all, it didn’t wish to lose the help of a few of its MNAs suspected of being a part of the conspiracy.

Alarm bells sounded when ten dissidents of PTI took refuge in Sindh Home (SH) Islamabad on March 18. The renegades had been shifted to Marriott Lodge after the SH was stormed by the activists of PTI. The opposition claimed that as many as 25 PTI members had been taken on board.

The PTI after failing to win again the loyalties of the deserters, moved a case within the apex courtroom to disqualify the ground crossers however couldn’t evoke a optimistic response for the reason that accusation was based mostly on conjectures. The opposite motive given was that the courtroom didn’t wish to meddle into the parliamentary affairs.

International conspiracy card

Studying that loyalties of a number of the PTI allies had change into uncertain, it turned apparent that the cube had upturned in favor of the opposition. IK and his core workforce determined to play the overseas conspiracy narrative as a rearguard motion, which was not a concoction. This narrative was performed for the reason that army institution and the ISI had determined to stay impartial and to remain out of politics.

IK assembled an enormous crowd of his followers at Islamabad on March 27 and waved a letter stating that the US had hatched a conspiracy to take away him from energy. Proof of all of the conferences of PDM leaders with the US officers in Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi was collected. A marketing campaign was launched towards the ground crossers propagating that crores of Rupees had been doled out to them and the fence sitters.

Objective was to determine a connection of the masterminds with the PDM leaders and the dissidents, to place the USA on the defensive, disgrace the conspirators, to place concern into the hearts of the dissidents, and construct a story to win the sympathies of the general public that he was being punished on account of pursuing an impartial overseas coverage.

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IK didn’t clarify as to why this essential letter was not mentioned in the suitable quarters from March 8 to March 29. One motive may very well be that he was hopeful of successful again the loyalties of his get together dissidents.

The contents of the letter had been ultimately mentioned within the Nationwide Safety Council (NSC) on March 30. The individuals agreed that the language of the letter was undiplomatic. Based mostly on their inputs, the case was introduced earlier than the Parliamentary Safety Committee on March 31. A demarche was given to the US cost d’ affairs in Islamabad, and likewise in Washington, which occurred for the primary time.

International Minister Qureshi throughout his go to to Beijing introduced the matter into the discover of his counterpart. China made an announcement that it’s going to not settle for one other spherical of chilly warfare on this area.

Final ditch effort to avoid wasting the crown

Seeing the writing on the wall that the PDM had received the quantity sport, as an alternative of getting depressed or exercising one of many choices of resigning, or dissolving the Nationwide Meeting (NA), or going through the NCM, IK remained in a combating temper and asserted that he’ll struggle until the final ball. He additionally talked of a giant shock. Nobody might guess as to what shock he might spring. Most thought that having misplaced the political battle, he was bluffing.

Vote of no-confidence – April 3

The session of the NA was held within the morning of April 3, however to the utter shock of the opposition leaders who had been 100% certain of victory within the voting, the deputy Speaker Qasim Suri after listening to the cost sheet of conspiracy and treason underneath Article 5 of the structure by the newly appointed regulation minister Fawad Choudhry, learn out the ready script and rejected the NCM in a huff.

It left the 190 members of the opposition gaping in disbelief. The Speaker reconfirmed the ruling of his deputy.  Quickly after, the PM dissolved the NA. The ready President accomplished the final formality by issuing the dissolution notification. All this was preplanned and executed inside minutes.

The opposition leaders had remained so engrossed in shopping for the loyalties of MNAs and in finishing the numbers, and had been so excited to have collected way more votes than was required that they by no means took into consideration this form of a bombshell which might paralyze them.

What was intriguing was that as an alternative of rejoicing the exit of the PTI which had change into a nightmare for them, the whole thing of opposition members together with the turncoats acquired demoralized as if victory had been stolen from them. What was most disquieting for them was that the tag of ‘Ghadars’ (traitors) was added to the tag of ‘Thieves & Looters’. Grasp stroke performed by IK left his opponents and their patrons aghast.

What fearful the opposition was that issues had gone towards the script. IK had come out of the ‘do or die battle’ as a victor since he had constructed a robust narrative to win the empathies of his voters. His theme of ‘sufferer of overseas conspiracy’, and his boldness to show the conspirators would assist him to comb the following elections. His reputation graph had fallen significantly, shot up as was seen from the latest native physique’s ballot outcomes.

Court docket battle

There was full political breakdown compounded by a constitutional disaster. Discovering themselves in a quandary, the authorized wizards of the 2 mainstream opposition events rushed to the Supreme Court docket (SC) and submitted petitions to declare the ruling of Qasim Suri unlawful and to reincarnate the useless authorities.

The SC Bar Council insisted upon the SC to take suo-moto discover and take up the difficulty on Sunday. The 190 PDM legislators and defectors raved mad for being dubbed as traitors. They argued that if the matter was so delicate, why such a belated motion, and why solely a demarche, and why not an apology was sought from the US?

The battle shifted from the parliament to the SC. It was fairly unusual that the SC which had rejected the petition of the PTI in search of choice over the defection clause saying that it was the inner matter of the parliament, this time agreed inside an hour to assemble a bench on Sunday to debate the decision given by the deputy speaker duly authenticated by the speaker.

The chief justice Bandiyal known as a gathering of senior judges at his home on vacation and held discussions with them. The five-member bench held periods each day and gave the unanimous ruling on April 7. It declared the ruling of the deputy speaker unconstitutional and towards the regulation. It restored the NA and directed the Speaker to finish the method of voting on April 9, beginning 10.30 am. It was now the flip of the opposition leaders to have a good time and for the PTI to really feel dejected.

The ‘letter-gate’ bomb was not thought of a severe matter by the SC. Washington denied the allegation. IK after shedding the authorized battle complained that the US-inspired conspiracy had been legitimized and the traitors let off the hook.

Day of excessive drama

April 9 was a day of excessive drama. The proceedings of NA began on time however the Speaker Qaiser as an alternative of holding voting allowed the PTI legislators to resort to delaying techniques by taking part in up the conspiracy concept and additional ratcheting the jangled nerves of the opposition and scary them to create a ruckus. The cover and search play went on till close to midnight. The aim may very well be both to keep away from the voting, which was not attainable for the reason that SC had given the date and cutout time of voting. The Speaker knew that if he didn’t adjust to the courtroom orders earlier than 2400 hours, he can be proceeded towards underneath the cost of contempt of courtroom.

The one attainable motive behind the inordinate delay may very well be to trigger nervous breakdown to the dissidents, forcing them in sheer panic to revert to the treasury benches.

The jittery NCM movers contemplated approaching the apex courtroom to arrest the obstinate Speaker. After 2300 hours, the doorways of the SC and of the IHC opened up; extra safety forces and prisoner buses arrived. At about 2330 hours, the COAS and the DG ISI landed within the PM Home in a helicopter and held a gathering with the PM. These quick paced developments gave rise to many tantalizing rumors.

At that belated stage the Speaker after assembly the PM acknowledged that the PM had handed him the US letter which might be learn by any member in his chamber. He ended the proceedings melodramatically minutes earlier than 2400 hours by resigning from his seat and welcoming former Speaker of PML-N Ayaz Sadiq to finish the proceedings. The latter performed the voting by which the opposition bagged 174 votes.

For the primary time in Pakistan’s historical past an elected PM was voted out of energy by way of NCM. IK’s untimely ouster upheld the observe document that no PM might full 5 years tenure.

To be concluded

The author is retired Brig Gen, warfare veteran, defence, safety & political analyst, worldwide columnist, creator of 5 books, Chairman Thinkers Discussion board Pakistan, Director Measac Analysis Centre, takes half in TV discuss reveals, and delivers talks. [email protected]   

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Regime change in Pakistan

Half 2

Asif Haroon Raja

Change of guards

On April 11, the opposition chief Shahbaz Sharif (SS) was elected as the brand new PM; he secured 174 votes. The PTI boycotted the voting. SS straightaway introduced a reduction package deal within the type of 10% improve in pensions and glued Rs 25000 as minimal wage for the laborer efficient from April, however quickly the date was shifted from April to Could. When President Alvi regretted conducting the oath taking ceremony of the PM on April 12, the Chairman Senate Sanjrani carried out this obligation. Inventory change turned bullish and the Rupee worth appreciated.

Oath taking ceremony of the brand new cupboard members numbering 34 from totally different coalition companions was once more carried out by the Senate Chairman.

Individuals’s backlash

Responding to the decision given by Imran Khan (IK), the individuals got here out on the streets on the evening of 10/11 April. Enormous rallies had been taken out all around the nation and in western nations to document their protest towards the choice of the Supreme Court docket (SC). They glowed their cellular torches, carried placards and chanted slogans in favor of IK and towards the military, the US and the incoming rulers. Social media launched a vicious propaganda marketing campaign to smear the picture of Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa. The BBC issued a frivolous report giving manufactured particulars of the happenings within the PM Home on the evening of April 9.

An impression has been constructed as if the military’s prime management was a part of the plot of regime change. Concocted tales and pretend audio tapes of senior generals circulated on social media to discredit the military. Letter-gate scandal is being drummed up fiercely.

Institution’s response

The highest brass of the military took a severe notice of the anti-army vilification marketing campaign and the circulating myths and notions by some quarters to malign the establishment, geared toward driving a wedge between military and the society. They expressed their concern within the annual formation commanders convention presided by Gen Bajwa on April 12 and pledged to uphold the structure and rule of regulation in any respect prices and to defend the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Pakistan towards all exterior and exterior threats with full drive.

DG ISPR’s Press Briefing

After the convention in GHQ, the DG ISPR Maj Gen Iftikhar Babar held a press briefing on April 14 and made an effort to place the document straight and to dispel the misperceptions. An impression has been constructed by the ousted PTI that Gen Bajwa was a part of the conspiracy to make the vote of no confidence profitable. The issue of ‘institution’s neutrality’ has change into a bitter level.

He clarified that the US had by no means requested for a army base; there might be no martial regulation; Gen Bajwa didn’t search extension in service; there isn’t any division throughout the military; military stays out of politics; choices weren’t given to the previous PM by the military chief, however these had been put ahead by the federal government and the institution was requested to resolve the political disaster; the PM go to to Moscow was in session with the GHQ; the phrase ‘conspiracy’ was not written within the cable despatched by Pakistan’s ambassador in Washington; a demarche was despatched to Washington on account of the undiplomatic language utilized by the US undersecretary, which was famous as interference in Pakistan’s inside affairs. Lastly, the nuclear program is in secure palms.

Veterans tilt in direction of Imran Khan

The briefing did assist in deflecting the anti-army tirade however didn’t settle down the tempers of the PTI activists and followers inside and outdoors the nation. A brand new debate over the refined distinction between the phrases ‘conspiracy’ and ‘interference’ has been generated. For a lot of, it quantities to the identical.

What’s worrying for the military prime brass is that by no means earlier than the veterans overtly expressed their affections for IK and their resentment towards the institution’s interference or neutrality. These emotions had been discernible inside a phase of serving officers as nicely. Gen Bajwa’s speech at Islamabad Safety Dialogue on April 17 favoring the US and condemning Russian invasion of Ukraine at a time when the alleged US conspiracy concept was the most well liked matter was not nicely acquired.

Gen Bajwa’s tackle in Lahore

To chill down their feelings, Gen Bajwa needed to tackle officers in Rawalpindi and Lahore garrisons. At Lahore the interplay went on for over 4 hours throughout which he needed to reply a whole lot of loaded questions. The crux of his briefing was that IK had been helped in forming governments in Islamabad and in Punjab, he was guided at each step to enhance his insurance policies, and he stood dedicated to the one-page doctrine, ignoring the banter and accusations leveled by the opposition. He shared his difficulties saying that IK by no means listened to the recommendation rendered, didn’t change the chief ministers of KP and Punjab, and wasted all his energies in chasing his political opponents as an alternative of specializing in economics and governance. He candidly admitted that the tiff developed over the posting out of DG ISI Lt Gen Faiz in final August.

His concluding remarks that he’ll welcome IK if he will get elected in subsequent elections which aren’t far and can prolong full cooperation raised eyebrows. By the point the elections are held, both he can be attending farewell dinners in Oct/Nov or would have joined the retired membership. The onus of cooperation or non-cooperation might be on the brand new chief and never him.

The PTI ex minister Fawad spilled the beans and laid to relaxation the conspiracy concept on April 20 by stating that his get together’s ouster was the results of strained ties with the institution which couldn’t be repaired regardless of concerted efforts.

Imran Khan’s backlash

Imran Khan in the mean time gave a name to his get together activists, followers and followers to stage a protest over the ouster of his get together on the evening of 10/11 April. The response was overwhelming.

His narrative is that he had been punished for refusing to toe the US dictates, to satisfy the CIA Director and to provide a base to the CIA, to sentence Russia and to make Pakistan’s overseas coverage impartial. He’s lashing out at his political opponents and his get together dissidents who had floored his get together with the assistance of the USA. He has held public conferences in Peshawar, Karachi and Lahore by which the attendance was mammoth.

IK fiery speeches within the public conferences had been emotive and provocative and amounted to incitement to violence. IK’s charisma that had peaked in Oct 2011 has as soon as once more catapulted with a giant bang.

He’ll hold rising the temperature and can restart politics of non-cooperation and agitation to fail the federal government. He’s demanding early elections, or else he would block the entire nation. True to his phrases, he’s proving extra harmful to his opponents after being ousted from energy.

Whereas he abstained from ridiculing the military, he acknowledged that neither the military nor any exterior energy might safeguard the nation and democracy however the individuals had been the true defenders and saviors.

New Authorities’s challenges

For the brand new authorities, the plate is full to the brim with a plethora of compound issues. Every member has to take away the tag of ‘traitor’ for which a probe committee has been shaped. Quick challenges might be depleting overseas change reserves, hovering public debt, overseas debt, commerce imbalance, fiscal deficit, present account deficit, and the brand new finances in Could.

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Managing the cabal of 12 political events that had been a part of the PDM, every hungering for profitable cupboard seats might be taxing for the brand new PM SS who took oath on April 12. He needed to labor onerous for every week to persuade the coalition companions to just accept the allotted ministries and take oaths of their places of work. The PPP acquired the lion’s share and remains to be aspiring for the seats of President, Chairman Senate and at the very least two seats of governors.

Mohsin Dawar and Ali Wazir, the 2 leaders of PTM confirmed their intent by overtly expressing their resentment over the air strikes carried out towards the hideouts of the TTP in Khost and Kunar. Akhtar Mengal felt so bitter over the safety forces operation towards the terrorists in Chaghi that he didn’t attend the oath taking ceremony. The BNP-M, and ANP didn’t settle for any portfolios within the cupboard as a consequence of their reservations. Cooperation of BNP-M and PTM might be conditional to Pak Military’s disassociation from counter terrorism, and help of the MQM-P might be topic to assembly their 7-point calls for, most essential of which is reopening their places of work in Karachi.

In different phrases, Akhtar Mengal would insist upon withdrawal of Frontier Corps and ISI/MI from inside Balochistan. The PTM would search withdrawal of the military from former FATA, and the MQM would love the wings of Sindh Rangers to be clipped and affect of Altaf’s unit/sector commanders to return. Each the PPP and the PML-N can be desirous about defanging the NAB, and in civilianizing the ISI. The ANP remains to be tied to the agenda of Pashtunistan. The PTM and the ANP are more likely to get near the Taliban regime in Kabul, ignite Pakhtun nationalism, and foment misgivings between Pakistan and Afghanistan. They’d thus facilitate the CIA’s job to do the remainder.

Whereas restoring the well being of the sick financial system is the largest problem, SS important fear can be learn how to hold the grasping allies appeased and united, and above all learn how to take care of the confrontational politics of PTI. The federal government is pinning hopes on the overseas funding case towards the PTI pending within the ECP courtroom since 2016 which is being concluded inside a month. It’s hoping that if the choice goes towards the get together, it might pave the way in which for its disbandment.

As a tit-for-tat, a sequence of corruption circumstances can be initiated towards the PTI leaders. Not like the final tenure of PML-N by which it was very smooth in direction of the vandalism of the PTI, this time it could deal with them extra firmly. They are going to be handled the way in which the TLP activists had been brutalized by the previous regime.

The political scenario in Punjab remains to be in uneven waters. After the bodily brawl within the provincial meeting by which the Deputy Speaker and the Speaker Pervez Elahi had been injured on the day of voting, the Governor Punjab Cheema belonging to PTI refused to provide oath to the newly elected Chief Minister Hamza Shahbaz son of SS. He cancelled the resignation of former chief minister Buzdar on technical grounds. The PTI’s President Alvi has to this point ignored the request of the PM to de-notify Cheema. It’s an entire muddle.

Factors to ponder over

Wouldn’t it not have been higher if the PTI was allowed to finish its tenure? There would have been no conspiracy card, horse buying and selling, upwelling of anti-army feelings and character assassination of the military chief, IK’s reputation wouldn’t have gotten a shot within the arm, and Pakistan would have been saved from a nationwide regime comprising ill-reputed parliamentarians. Barring the newcomers, virtually all different cupboard ministers are on bail and courtroom circumstances are pending towards them.

Curiously, the IMF needs all the federal cupboard to declare their property, financial institution accounts, tax returns and enterprise particulars. That is the largest bombshell dropped upon the plunderers.

The large query is whether or not contemporary elections would resolve the persistent issues? Every time elections are held, the losers won’t settle for the outcomes and the tug of warfare will recommence. With tainted establishments, and dirty politicians and bureaucrats, no progress is feasible, whether or not the following regime might be of PML-N or the PTI. It would undergo an identical destiny with zero outcomes. Pakistan will proceed to lurch from one disaster to a different and the overseas conspirators will proceed to play the sport of snake and ladders with our mini thoughts leaders.

The one method out is to hold out electoral, judicial, bureaucratic, police, financial and schooling reforms. These can’t be completed by a single political get together or a weak coalition. The incumbent regime comprising politicians from totally different events, backgrounds and ideologies, with some branded as anti-Pakistan, looters, cash launderers and criminals, not a lot might be anticipated. The case is akin to the adage, “too many cooks will spoil the broth”.

SS’s pace and effectivity can be massively hindered by the egocentric coalition companions, confrontational politics of the PTI, and the contaminated fame of the judiciary and the police.

Would the conciliatory feedback of Gen Qamar Bajwa and alter in regime ease tensions with the US and alter the interventionist and bossy coverage of Washington? The reply is a giant NO. The one attainable change may very well be that the US, IMF and the EU change into useful and a bit extra beneficiant, the FATF removes Pakistan from the gray listing.

Generosity of the US will in fact not be value free. Would Pakistan cede to the US demand for a army base or airspace, and if that’s the case, what impression will it have on Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan and China?

What results Gen Bajwa’s harsh feedback could have upon Pakistan’s relations with Russia, which promised oil and grains at an inexpensive value, and resolving gasoline shortages? Vladimir Putin as an alternative of reacting, confirmed grace by congratulating the brand new PM.

Would falling again into the magic spell of the US change the aims of the Indo-US-Israel nexus towards Pakistan? Can we nonetheless take into account the trio innocent and mates of Pakistan?

Thus far the vibes from China are optimistic. Rejuvenation of CPEC at a sooner tempo is the one technique to get well our financial system and to make Pakistan self-reliant.

If the incumbent regime tries to delay elections, the PTI is more likely to once more repeat its outdated techniques of lengthy march after Ramadhan, and this time stage sit-in at Islamabad, Peshawar, Lahore, Karachi and Quetta in an try and paralyze the state equipment. If that’s the case, will or not it’s attainable for the regulation enforcement companies to dam the ocean of individuals from totally different instructions?

Considering the exceptionally excessive feelings of the individuals, is the stage not getting set for chaos and anarchy? Will the institution stay impartial within the face of constructing volcanoes?

The author is retired Brig Gen, warfare veteran, defence, safety & political analyst, worldwide columnist, creator of 5 books, Chairman Thinkers Discussion board Pakistan, Director Measac Analysis Centre, takes half in TV discuss reveals, and delivers talks. [email protected]