NEO: US Dusts Off WMD Lies, This Time Aimed toward Russia

The US is as soon as once more waving round accusations in opposition to its…

The US is as soon as once more waving round accusations in opposition to its adversaries of making ready to make use of “chemical weapons.” This time, the accused is Russia amid ongoing navy operations in Ukraine.

The Guardian in its article, “‘Clear signal’ Putin is weighing up use of chemical weapons in Ukraine, says Biden,” would declare:

Russia’s false accusation that Ukraine has organic and chemical weapons is a “clear signal” {that a} determined Vladimir Putin is contemplating utilizing them himself, Joe Biden has mentioned.

The US president mentioned Putin’s “again is in opposition to the wall and now he’s speaking about new false flags he’s establishing together with, asserting that we in America have organic in addition to chemical weapons in Europe – merely not true. I assure you,” Biden mentioned at an occasion on Monday.

The article would additionally declare:

“They’re additionally suggesting that Ukraine has organic and chemical weapons in Ukraine. That’s a transparent signal he’s contemplating utilizing each of these. He’s already used chemical weapons up to now, and we must be cautious of what’s about to come back.”

Putin “is aware of there’ll be extreme penalties due to the united Nato entrance,” he mentioned, with out specifying what actions the alliance would take.

Nevertheless, US President Joe Biden didn’t clarify “how” Russian President Vladimir Putin’s again was “in opposition to the wall,” or clarify why Russia would use chemical weapons if Russia was additionally conscious that “there’ll be extreme penalties.”

President Biden’s newest claims fall inside a now established sample of US overseas coverage utilizing false claims relating to “weapons of mass destruction” (WMDs) to create a pretext for in any other case unjustified and indefensible acts of navy aggression.

The US has used this tactic within the lead as much as the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq. Claims that Iraq had WMDs had been later revealed as a deliberate mislead promote to the general public what was in any other case a battle of aggression geared toward regime change.

On the time, President Putin challenged US claims. The BBC in a 2002 article titled, “President Putin’s doubts over Iraq,” would be aware:

Mr Putin stays unconvinced. He nonetheless sees no want for a brand new decision.

And in the present day he dismissed Mr Blair’s file of proof in opposition to Saddam as propaganda.

Russia has not in its possession any reliable knowledge, Mr Putin mentioned, that would assist the existence of nuclear weapons or any weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.

He had not acquired from his companions such info as but.

And by 2004, the Guardian in its article, “There have been no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq,” would report:

1,625 UN and US inspectors spent two years looking out 1,700 websites at a value of greater than $1bn. Yesterday they delivered their verdict.

Saddam Hussein destroyed his final weapons of mass destruction greater than a decade in the past and his capability to construct new ones had been dwindling for years by the point of the Iraq invasion, based on a complete US report launched yesterday.

By 2012, when the US-sponsored regime change battle in neighboring Syria stalled, the US as soon as once more started accusing adversaries of utilizing WMDs – and “chemical weapons” extra particularly. The assaults had been clearly staged by US-sponsored militants, typically simply on the eve of a significant victory for Syrian forces, and carried out particularly to function a pretext for extra direct US navy intervention.

By 2014, by a mixture of citing “chemical weapons” and the unfold of the so-called “Islamic State” (ISIS), the US did finally invade and occupy japanese Syria. By 2015, Russia additionally intervened, however on the invitation of the Syrian authorities, thus checkmating US makes an attempt to copy its WMD-predicated regime change battle in actually the very subsequent nation over from Iraq on the map.

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By 2018, regardless of doubtful and clearly politically-motivated “investigations” carried out by the Group for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), it will be admitted even by them that anti-government militants in Syria had been confirmed to have carried out not less than a number of the chemical assaults assigned to the Syrian authorities, based on Reuters.

Different cases the OPCW blamed on the Syrian authorities concerned websites the OPCW by no means accessed or straight investigated together with the 2017 incident at Khan Sheikhoun. Their conclusions had been drawn by analyzing “proof” supplied to them by the exact same circles of militants they themselves admit had carried out chemical assaults elsewhere.

As was defined on the time, and has been reiterated by even mainstream Western analysts in the present day with regard to latest claims that Russia is making ready to make use of “chemical weapons,” chemical weapons are extraordinarily ineffective and are actually far much less efficient than even peculiar typical weapons.

In a 2013 Impartial article by Robert Fisk titled, “They might be combating for Syria, not Assad. They might even be successful,” a Syrian intelligence officer, when requested in the event that they had been utilizing chemical weapons, was quoted as saying:

Why ought to we use chemical weapons when our Mig plane and their bombs trigger infinitely extra destruction?

Removed from a baseless declare made by a random Syrian intelligence officer, the effectiveness of chemical weapons, or lack thereof, has been the topic of significant research because the inception of such weapons.

A 1990 US Marine Corps research of the 1980’s Iran-Iraq Conflict, underneath “Appendix B – Chemical substances,” would clarify intimately:

Chemical weapons require fairly explicit climate and geographic situations for optimum effectiveness. Given the relative nonpersistence of all brokers employed throughout this battle, together with mustard, there was solely a short window of employment alternative each day by day and seasonally, when the brokers may very well be used.

The report continued (emphasis added):

We’re unsure as to the relative effectiveness of nerve brokers since these which had been employed are by nature a lot much less persistent than mustard. With a view to achieve killing concentrations of those brokers, pre-dawn assaults are greatest, performed in areas the place the morning breezes are prone to blow away from pleasant positions. Chemical weapons have a low kill ratio. Simply as in WWI, throughout which the ratio of deaths to injured from chemical compounds was 2-3 %, that determine seems to be borne out once more on this battle though dependable knowledge on casualties are very troublesome to acquire. We deem it exceptional that the dying price ought to maintain at such a low degree even with the introduction of nerve brokers. If these charges are appropriate, as they nicely could also be, this additional reinforces the place that we should not consider chemical weapons as “a poor man’s nuclear weapon.” Whereas such weapons have nice psychological potential, they aren’t killers or destroyers on a scale with nuclear or organic weapons.

In different phrases, chemical weapons require very particular situations to be efficient, require excessive concentrations with a view to have any affect on the battlefield, and nonetheless fall far in need of producing the quantity of dying and destruction typical weapons are able to producing – a incontrovertible fact that has solely change into extra poignant because the report was written in 1990.

Precision guided munitions, simpler unguided munitions, and programs used to ship them each have advanced by leaps and bounds. It doesn’t matter what “improvements” Western policymakers think about or declare have been secretly made within the realm of chemical weaponry, their dispersal and dissipation within the air is a matter of physics that has remained a continuing from WW1 to the Iran-Iraq Conflict within the 1980’s and persists to today.

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This reality is so well-established it’s typically even accounted for when in any other case irrationally accusing Russia of making ready to make use of chemical weapons in the present day in Ukraine.

The Harvard Gazette in a March 23, 2022 article titled, “Russia’s remaining weapons are horrific and confounding,” would admit:

From a purely navy perspective, there aren’t any navy targets that nuclear, chemical, or organic weapons might destroy that Russia can’t destroy with its airpower and rockets. The principle goal of utilizing them would most likely be to attempt to shock the Ukrainians into give up.

But, even attempting to “shock the Ukrainians into give up” is also achieved extra successfully and with a a lot decrease political worth with typical weapons. The article additionally admits that nothing is thought about what chemical weapons if any Russia even possesses – making these accusations much more absurd.

When all of this info is taken into account collectively we’re left with claims made by verified serial liars who’ve a longtime monitor document of mendacity about adversaries “utilizing” chemical weapons – chemical weapons the West’s personal consultants admit fall far brief when it comes to effectiveness on the battlefield in comparison with even the crudest of typical weapons.

The West additionally admits that “Putin” is aware of “there’ll be extreme penalties” and the usage of chemical weapons might be one of many few methods the US and the remainder of NATO might try and justify a extra direct intervention in Ukraine and thus derail Russian goals.

There may be actually no motive by any means for Russia to make use of these weapons even when that they had them – because the West has supplied no proof they even do.

In 2017, even the New York Occasions in its article, “Russia Destroys Chemical Weapons, and Faults US for Not Doing So,” would admit:

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia presided over the destruction of his nation’s final declared chemical weapons on Wednesday, describing the elimination as a “historic occasion” and complaining that america has did not purge its personal chemical arsenal.

Whereas critics and skeptics might declare Russia nonetheless might possess undeclared chemical weapons, it must be famous that the US itself has did not eradicate its personal declared stockpiles.

Putin’s Again is Not “In opposition to the Wall,” Ukraine’s is

The irrational narrative goes that Russian President Vladimir Putin is so determined to win an in any other case “stalled” navy operation in Ukraine that he would danger utilizing chemical weapons to regain momentum.

It has already been established, nevertheless, that such weapons won’t present any further benefit on the battlefield Russia’s nonetheless very in depth provide of typical weapons already lend it.

In reality, it’s the US Division of Protection itself that has – one month into Russia’s navy operations – admitted that the majority of Russia’s fight energy allotted to operations in Ukraine stay at Russia’s disposal.

A Protection Division briefing held on March 21, 2022 would come with in its transcript a senior protection official’s response to questions relating to Russia’s fight energy one month into its operations in Ukraine, revealing:

I’d say that in the present day, we assess Russian fight energy at slightly below 90 %. And once more, it’s a must to bear in mind, sure, they’re expending an terrible lot, however additionally they constructed up an terrible lot because the early fall, and so they simply have quite a bit accessible to them.

The official would reiterate, noting:

…as we mentioned approach again within the fall, that Mr. Putin had organized an oppressive alignment of combined-arms functionality that he nonetheless has the overwhelming majority accessible to him.

Different US Division of Protection briefings held across the one-month mark would be aware that no main try has been made but to bolster Russian operations inside Ukraine, nor have there been any main strikes to resupply depots ready forward of the operations which started in late February 2022.

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Russia has the overwhelming majority of its navy energy accessible to it, and the sluggish nature of its operations will be simply accounted for alongside two traces of reasoning.

First, Russia’s operations in Ukraine are being carried out on a scale no different navy operation in fashionable warfare has been performed on. Ukraine has virtually double the inhabitants Iraq had in 2003 when US forces invaded. Ukraine can also be roughly 38% bigger when it comes to land space than Iraq.

Second, Russia’s said and noticed technique of transferring into and throughout Ukraine is systematic and methodical. Simply as Russia assisted the Syrian Arab Military in doing for the final 7 years in Syria when taking again main inhabitants facilities, Russia is now doing likewise in Ukraine.

This course of contains the encirclement of main inhabitants facilities to chop off fighters from reinforcements and extra ammunition, weapons, and different provides, the institution of corridors to evacuate the civilian inhabitants, after which the incremental seizure of territory from armed militants with intermittent ceasefires and negotiations for varied factions to give up and evacuate the world earlier than combating continues, till all the inhabitants middle is secured and order reestablished.

Russia had efficiently assisted Syria in taking again just about each main populated middle in Syria apart from Idlib to the north and US-occupied Syrian territory east of the Euphrates River. Russia did this with way more complicated logistical traces stretched out a lot additional than what’s being utilized in Ukraine in the present day.

To think about the identical navy that achieved such efficient ends in Syria is now “bungling” operations in Ukraine is wishful pondering at greatest. Western “consultants” who predicted Russia’s navy ravenous to dying “in three days” for the final month predicate such predictions on tactical vignettes supplied virtually solely by battle propaganda produced by Ukraine’s navy and central authorities. These predictions additionally think about that any precise shortcomings in Russia’s planning and execution might be left unaddressed and throughout the theater of operations for days, weeks, and even months. This lack of ability to suppose in “4 dimensions” and account for Russia observing and addressing shortcomings and thus altering the course of any given prediction earlier than reaching “deadlines” has led to a protracted string of embarrassing and unfulfilled “predictions” made by supposed Western navy consultants.

The quantity of navy energy the US itself admits Russia nonetheless has at its disposal, taken along with Russia’s already observable competence in retaking populated facilities methodically in Syria, coupled along with the true nature of chemical weapons and their inefficiency on the battlefield solely additional removes the potential for Russia using chemical weapons for any motive in Ukraine.

If chemical weapons are used, it will likely be by these whose backs are really in opposition to the wall – a Ukrainian regime and its US-NATO-armed forces being encircled in each main inhabitants middle within the nation – apart from Mariupol and Kherson which have each already been secured.

Time is on Russia’s aspect and in need of any main Western navy intervention, will achieve no matter its precise goals are in Ukraine. The need of accusing Russia of making ready to make use of chemical weapons is a transfer of acquainted desperation and duplicity commonly employed by the West particularly as a result of Russia will in any other case achieve success in Ukraine.

Brian Berletic is a Bangkok-based geopolitical researcher and author, particularly for the net journal “New Japanese Outlook”.