Coincidence or Conspiracy: What Are the Odds?

A person takes out a lavish, grossly extreme insurance coverage coverage on his spouse. The…

A person takes out a lavish, grossly extreme insurance coverage coverage on his spouse. The following day she keels over useless. Which speculation ought to information the detective assigned to the case? (A) It’s most likely only a coincidence, no want to research. (B) There’s a big chance of foul play, so the husband needs to be thought-about a suspect, at the very least till a radical investigation definitively clears him.

Intuitively, most of us know that the right reply is “B.” We don’t want chance idea to inform us that, any greater than we’d like Einstein to inform us that Jeffrey Epstein didn’t kill himself.

However wait! Right here comes a mathematically-inclined skilled debunker, who explains: “Truly, greater than ten million life insurance coverage insurance policies are taken out yearly, with the insured particular person averaging 19.2 years of life expectancy after the preliminary coverage buy, so 500,000 annually-insured individuals die annually which implies greater than 1300 annually-insured individuals die every day. The insured spouse in your instance may simply have been a type of 1300 individuals who simply occurred to die on that individual day, which simply occurred to be the day after the husband purchased the coverage. So it will need to have been a coincidence. No want to research.”

Wikipedia, The New York Occasions, Snopes, DHS’s Disinformation Governance Board, and various fact-checkers all agree. Social media labels individuals who suspect the husband of homicide and insurance coverage fraud “conspiracy theorists” and disables the accounts of those that voice their suspicions.

After which it will get worse. The husband makes use of a part of his gargantuan insurance coverage settlement (with extra assist from unknown however very rich events) to sue chosen various media retailers for libel. He says the choice media has tormented him by reporting on the individuals who need him investigated for homicide and insurance coverage fraud. He says his emotions have been damage and he has needed to transfer and alter his telephone quantity and search psychological counseling. He says the “conspiracy theorists” are tormenting him by being so disrespectful of the useless (his spouse) and the grieving survivor (himself).

An inexpensive decide and/or jury would possibly rule:

“We’re terribly sorry, Mr. Harmless Widower, however even assuming that you just actually are harmless, it was and stays completely cheap for various media retailers to voice their suspicions primarily based on the indisputable fact that you just purchased a grossly extreme insurance coverage coverage in your spouse the day earlier than she keeled over useless.”

However what if Mr. Harmless Widower may produce an knowledgeable witness: a mathematician who swears on a stack of Principia Mathematicas that chance idea proves the percentages are over 95% that Mr. Widower is harmless, and the timing of the insurance coverage buy was only a coincidence? Within the absence of knowledgeable testimony on the contrary, and with your entire mainstream media supporting poor bullied Mr. Widower, the decide and jury would possibly jettison frequent sense and say: “Jeepers, that just about proves the man’s harmless! These conspiracy theorists positive are a silly, nasty bunch of actuality deniers! Why gained’t they only ‘belief the science’?”

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The above instance is, after all, fictitious and hypothetical. However its resemblance to precise occasions is greater than coincidental.

Take Richard Gutjahr—please! Gutjahr has a manner of popping up within the strangest locations. As I wrote in 2018:

Bear in mind the superb “terror journalist” Richard Gutjahr? The person with the uncanny potential to point out up, pre-positioned, to take iconic footage of “Islamic terror” assaults?

Gutjahr, married to Israeli black ops specialist Einat Wilf, simply occurred to be on a balcony in Good, France to movie the start of the “truck assault.” His footage was basically the ONLY footage of the occasion ever seen by the world.

Then one week later, Gutjahr and his daughter each simply occurred to be on the shopping center in Munich the place the subsequent large “Islamic terror” occasion burst into the headlines. As soon as once more, the MSM led with Gutjahr’s (and his daughter’s) footage.

It takes chutzpah to pre-position your self to get the lead footage of two “terror assaults” one week, and 800 km, aside. However it takes much more chutzpah to sue journalists who report your obvious foreknowledge.

Gutjahr, apparently not missing in chutzpah, sued German journalist Gerhard Wisnewski for reporting the extremely suspicious info. However even in Zionist-owned-and-operated Germany, such chutzpah was an excessive amount of for the courts to abdomen. Under is Wisnewski’s report on his authorized victory over the hapless Gutjahr, a extra apparent terror suspect than Bin Laden ever was, who clearly must be arrested and interrogated. Anyone on the market who can rendition him?

I stand by my 2018 assertion that Gutjahr is an apparent terror suspect. However he’s only a suspect. He may be harmless. It might be only a coincidence that he occurred to be completely positioned to movie the most-used media footage of two spectacular, ultra-media-hyped “Islamist terror assaults,” in two completely different nations, in the identical week…and that he additionally simply occurs to be married to an Israeli intelligence officer. However…what are the percentages?!

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Now right here is the place it actually will get bizarre. Gutjahr has simply “proven up” at one other “suspicious location”: A seemingly well-financed web site known as Rootclaim that pretends to have developed an app for figuring out the percentages that any given “conspiracy idea” is true:

Rootclaim was developed by certainly one of Gutjahr’s in-laws, a sure Saar Wilf, who’s presumably associated to Gutjahr’s spouse Einat. (These individuals know the right way to hold it within the household!) Saar and Einat Wilf not solely share a final identify, however have co-authored an article on COVID. After all that may be mere coincidence; they might be fully unrelated. However…what are the percentages?

Rootclaim appears moderately open to non-mainstream views…at the very least on points the place the Wilf-Gutjahr household doesn’t have pores and skin within the recreation. It tells us there may be an 86% likelihood that Putin doesn’t have most cancers, a 96% likelihood that the anti-Assad US-NATO backed forces (not Assad) attacked al-Ghouta with chemical weapons, and an 86% likelihood that COVID-19 “was developed throughout gain-of-function analysis and was launched accidentally.”

That’s all well-and-good. However once more: What are the percentages that Richard Gutjahr, or any TV host for that matter, would simply occur to be the distinctive particular person in place to shoot the primary and most-used footage of two successive main terror assaults? For some unusual purpose, Rootclaim hasn’t run thesecalculations.

Once we estimate the percentages of such issues, we have to take into account background info. For instance: How related is the very fact, attested to by Wikipedia, that Richard Gutjahr is married to a former Israeli intelligence officer?

Wikipedia tells us that Gutjahr’s “coincidental presence at occasions gave rise to conspiracy theories, alleging his presence at each occasions couldn’t have been a coincidence. Gutjahr has pressed prices towards those that make the allegations,[21][22] which he sees largely motivated by antisemitism towards his spouse contemplating the usually antisemitic nature of the hostilities.” (Humorous how Wikipedia tells us that Gutjahr “pressed prices” towards journalists like Gerhard Wisnewski however fails to say the end result: Gutjahr suffered a crushing defeat in court docket.)

After which…deliver on the compulsory prices of anti-Semitism! Whoever is modifying Wikipedia apparently thinks it’s “anti-Semitic” to note that Israel is the one nation that has benefited from the “conflict on terror,” an episode of worldwide mass hysteria elicited by a string of alleged “Islamic terror assaults” by which the Israeli authorities generally, and its intelligence group particularly, is the main suspect.

Was it only a coincidence that the individuals who occurred to be pre-positioned close to the New Jersey waterfront on the good spot to movie the assault on the Twin Towers, and who filmed and wildly celebrated the assaults earlier than being arrested, had been Israeli spies who later confessed that they had been despatched there “to doc the occasion”?

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Was it only a coincidence that the mysterious “Janek” who was pre-positioned on a rooftop to movie the enduring footage of “the Charlie Hebdo terrorists’ escape” turned out to be an Israeli agent? As Hicham Hamza wrote:

On the origin of this (iconic Charlie Hebdo) video – filmed, oddly sufficient, with out obvious concern of being hit by a stray bullet – by which one of many Charlie Hebdo attackers (who would quickly flee within the path of a Parisian institution utilized by the Israeli military) declaims, together with his left index finger pointed in direction of the sky, that he had “avenged the Prophet” – is a mysterious nameless Pole, blurred by the tv media, who vanishes and not using a hint – having been employed by a long-standing household enterprise of Laurent Dassault, ultra-Zionist multimillionaire related to the navy and radical wing of the Tel Aviv regime.

There’s a mass of proof, circumstantial and in any other case, that implicates Israel in 9/11, the 7/7/2005 London bombings, the Paris assaults of January and November 2015, and certainly many of the highest-profile GWOT terror incidents attributed to “Islamic extremists.” So Richard Gutjahr’s being married to an Israeli intelligence officer, after which magically displaying as much as movie the beginnings of two successive terror assaults, does appear a tad suspicious. And his presence at a web site promoting an app that claims to mathematically arbitrate between mainstream and non-mainstream narratives appears not simply suspicious, however weird…if not downright absurd. If noticing such issues makes you “anti-Semitic,” then the choice to “anti-Semitism” is sheer unmitigated idiocy.

Is mainstream media idiotic…or complicit? What are the percentages?

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