1- Historical past has been fully turned on its head. All states are re-settling into the positions they held a century in the past, attempting to succeed in the borders they possessed 100 years in the past. The technology of empires is returning. International locations with a strong heritage, with nice claims, are rising. The world’s energy map is appallingly altering. Solely by way of this development, by way of this wave can we re-identify the way forward for the twenty first century.
2- The order that was established after World Battle II collapsed. The world’s central powers are reshaping. The West is going through nice threats exterior its personal area for the primary time after centuries. It not has the prospect to construct a worldwide order all by itself. It will result in nice breaking factors, axis modifications, and kind important areas of regional battle.
No excuse for invasion. No risk for Russia
3- Russia’s assault on Ukraine is totally associated to this variation. Russia is brazenly invading a sovereign. Usually, there could possibly be no excuse or rightful grounds for this. However that is the signal of recent international situations. The door to the age of insanity has been cracked open. We are able to brazenly say that those that united in opposition to Russia as we speak will do the very same issues tomorrow. No nation will restrict itself with outdated patterns.
4- There was no risk from Ukrainian territory immediately focusing on Russia. Therefore, there isn’t any political, nor authorized grounds for Putin’s invasion. As a sovereign state, Ukraine can ally with NATO or anybody else if it chooses to take action. This being perceived as a risk to a different nation doesn’t justify an invasion. If terrorist teams or different components from inside Ukraine had immediately began attacking Russia, then the matter could be debatable.
The battle is in Ukraine, however the warfare is between US-Europe, Russia
5- The U.S. and U.Ok. virtually provoked Russia to launch this invasion. Quite a few causes and prospects could also be listed on this regard. Nevertheless, it’s clear that each international locations are at warfare with Russia, and that they’re attempting to realize it by way of Ukraine. It’s apparent that their earlier makes an attempt at breaking out civil warfare in Kazakhstan carried the identical intention.
6- The threats and the solutions right here usually are not between Russia and Ukraine, however between Russia and the U.S., the U.Ok., and Europe. Ukraine is nothing apart from the primary battleground of this showdown. There will definitely be new ones to come back.
The European warfare has now begun
7- Although the battle is in Ukraine, the true warfare is between Russia and Europe-U.S. Therefore, we are going to see the West’s heavy sanctions and pressures focusing on Russia. We’ll see it isolate Russia from the remainder of the world, paralyze it economically, launch covert operations inside Ukraine, brazenly provide weapons, shut off its airspace to Russia—all as the primary stage of the East-West, Europe-Russia warfare.
8- Russia’s aggression stems from concern. Russian President Vladimir Putin is aware of that his nation shall be divided a second time after the Soviets— he is aware of that is what the West is planning. Thus, he’s attempting to forestall this case from coming to cross by way of threats and assaults as a substitute of assuming a place of protection. What we’ve got been seeing in recent times as Russian expansionism is nothing apart from an effort geared toward delaying, at stopping this horrific finish.
This warfare will drag out. Which international locations will it unfold to?
9- That is going to be a long-lasting warfare. If Russia fails to shortly full the invasion, it’ll face a large nightmare. Past financial pressures, Russia shall be destabilized. Although Putin is striving to forestall Russia’s “second collapse,” his personal choices will expedite this course of.
10- A chronic warfare implies that the areas of battle will unfold exterior Ukraine. An Japanese-Western entrance will kind from the Baltics to the Aegean, by way of Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, and Bulgaria.
NATO’s ‘resistance chains’ will unfold all through Japanese Europe
11- The conflict of central powers, the battle for geopolitical energy we’ve got been seeing within the Center East for years is now going down within the Black Sea and the north. The clashes that have been refrained from the U.S. and Europe at the moment are knocking on Europe’s door for the primary time.
12- After World Battle II, the brand new European warfare has now begun. The Ukraine warfare represents the start of the European warfare. We do not know how lengthy the defend they inbuilt Japanese Europe will final, how lengthy it’ll shield Western Europe. Nevertheless, it may be mentioned that Europe has already began to direct warfare in opposition to Russia.
13- The resistance chains they inbuilt Ukraine shall be often known as the Europe-Russia warfare. These chains shall be inbuilt each nation alongside the north-south entrance line. Europe’s warfare could additional neutralize the West, which has lengthy been regressing. Although they might appear united in opposition to Russia as we speak, they will be unable to maintain this up for very lengthy. The alliance established inside Europe in opposition to Russia will quickly divide.
US-UK attempting to drive Turkey to affix the warfare
14- For Turkey, this isn’t a Ukraine warfare however a Black Sea warfare. Following Turkey’s decades-long battle in opposition to terror within the nation’s south, we at the moment are going to combat a brand new risk, the instability that shall be attributable to the warfare between the West and Russia.
15- The U.S. and U.Ok. are quickly attempting to attract Turkey into this warfare. This was revealed by the political discourse utilized by Ukraine. If the West fails to restrain Russia by way of Japanese Europe, by way of Baltic international locations, it plans to drive Turkey to the battlefield as Plan B. They’re attempting to interrupt out the Turkey-Russia warfare—which that they had beforehand tried in Syria—by way of the Black Sea this time.
A Turkey-Russia warfare mustn’t ever be allowed
16- Turkey should keep away from falling into the place of nations comparable to Ukraine and Poland to defend Europe. It should keep away from being put into that class. Turkey shouldn’t be the West’s murderer. It might act with the Western alliance, however it’ll take motion in accordance with its personal pursuits.
17- No matter what occurs, a warfare between Turkey and Russia have to be averted. We should not be a entrance nation for the U.S. and U.Ok. The West’s settlement within the Black Sea will push Turkey towards this. However we should let Europe defend itself. Europe needs to be the one on the frontlines. The period of driving different nations into the fireplace whereas they stay in consolation is over. Our nation mustn’t pay the worth of Europe’s protection.
If the West brings Russia to its knees, it’ll do the identical to Turkey
18- Although Turkey is a NATO nation, it has been recognized as a future risk to the West. Though it’s an ally, we all know that the West perceives Turkey as a risk. We noticed this clearly in Syria. We noticed it within the Aegean and within the Mediterranean. We noticed it in Karabakh. We noticed it within the issues of the Kurdistan Staff’ Occasion (PKK) and the Fetullah Terrorist Group (FETÖ). We noticed that each one these threats are U.S.- and Europe-based.
19- Turkey gaining power, growing its affect scares the West. Therefore, they’re implementing a plan to cease Turkey in each area. Because of this the political entrance constructed inside Turkey was designed as an inner invasion entrance.
20- If the West brings Russia to its knees, the second step shall be to immediately flip to Turkey. It should pursue to shrink Turkey and take it beneath tutelage as soon as once more. It is not going to solely redesign the nation’s politics but additionally reformat Turkey. That is the place the nice risk lies.
Turkey’s imperial thoughts will assist overcome this disaster
21- Putin’s “nuclear forces on alert” command is a sign of how far this might truly go. This isn’t only a bluff. Russia is calculating that the risk focusing on it’ll obtain large destruction. Turkey should additionally calculate accordingly.
22- A warfare between Turkey and Russia will take away each international locations from the worldwide equation. It should divide each international locations, relieving the West from two threats with one stone.
23- We must always keep away from this, forestall it in any respect prices. Turkey ought to make the most of these energy conflicts in accordance with its personal pursuits. It should do no matter it vital within the south, within the west, and within the north. Turkey’s thoughts, the imperial thoughts will current an incredible instance of acumen right here as properly.
Let’s wait and see…